Daily data tracking
Three major indexes: Shanghai index closed up 0.62%, Shenzhen Component Index closed up 0.97% and gem index closed up 1.25%
Shenwanyi sector: media, national defense, military industry and electronics sectors rose; transportation, chemical industry and automobile sectors callback
Concept plate: Lianban, today’s headlines, online game concept rise: coal mining, pharmaceutical business, wind power generation concept callback
Transaction and northbound capital: the transaction between the two cities was about 1017.9 billion yuan, an increase over the previous trading day: the net inflow of northbound capital was about 8.141 billion yuan
Hot spot tracking: annual comments on key sectors
In terms of liquidity, this year is in a tight balance. In the case of insufficient overall incremental funds, high-risk preference funds are limited. Therefore, in addition to plate differentiation, large and small plate differentiation and track stock differentiation this year. On the whole, the performance of hydrogen energy index is far lower than that of lithium battery, but the fluctuation of lithium battery plate is also significantly higher than that of hydrogen energy index.
There is no so-called competition substitution relationship between lithium battery industry and hydrogen energy industry. As a clean energy supported by the state, they complement each other. They also have great differences in application scenarios. At present, hydrogen fuel cells are mainly used in commercial vehicles, while lithium batteries are mainly used in passenger vehicles.
At present, there are still many difficulties to be overcome in the technical level of hydrogen energy, including the preparation, storage and transportation of green hydrogen. Therefore, there is still a large cost gap between hydrogen fuel cell and lithium battery. According to DOE calculation, when hydrogen drops to 30 yuan / kg, lithium battery drops to 700 yuan / kWh, which can achieve parity with traditional fuel vehicles. At present, lithium battery leading companies have achieved parity or even low price, but there is still a way to go in the parity of hydrogen fuel cell. According to the recent national energy work conference, we should speed up the substitution of renewable energy in the next 22 years. Wind power photovoltaic hydrogen energy has been mentioned. In terms of hydrogen energy, it is proposed to focus on overcoming technical difficulties and accelerating the tackling of technical equipment. We expect that the national energy development will be multi legged and coordinated development in the future.
We expect that lithium battery has strong global industrial chain and technical cost advantages, benefiting from strong downstream demand and strong performance certainty; Hydrogen energy benefits from policy driven acceleration, and the industry has entered a stage of rapid development; Wind power and photovoltaic will maintain high elasticity.
The new seed law was implemented beyond expectations to encourage innovation and combat infringement. Since the second half of the year, policies have been implemented intensively. At present, the scale of China’s seed industry market exceeds 100 billion, but the industry concentration is still low. We believe that with the support of future policies, the innovation enthusiasm of seed companies is expected to be further improved, and China’s genetically modified varieties are expected to accelerate the process and greatly increase the penetration rate.
From top to bottom, we believe that the main direction of the market next year is still to narrow the gap between the main line of steady growth and ppi-cpi scissors, but there are opportunities for phased performance in other sectors. Looking forward to the next 5-10 years, the seed industry sector is expected to get out of the independent market.
As the core of China’s national defense industry, the fundamentals of the military industry sector continue to improve. At the policy level, the Ministry of national defense recently said that it would speed up the construction of a new development pattern of weapons and equipment construction and spare no effort to speed up the modernization of weapons and equipment. The proportion of China’s military spending in GDP is lower than that of mainstream countries in the world, and the follow-up military spending budget is expected to continue to increase. Under the strategic goal of building a strong military in a century, the military industry is expected to achieve leapfrog development in the future driven by the core logic of “equipment upgrading + domestic substitution + military to civilian conversion”.
In terms of horizontal comparison, the annual growth rate of military industry is still at a low level in the science and technology growth sector. Since the beginning of the year, military industry has increased by 8%, while the growth rates of electrical equipment and electronics have reached 45% and 14% respectively. From the perspective of valuation, the P / E ratio of the sector is 70 times, at the quantile level of 54% in recent 10 years. Next year, the military industry will usher in a rapid development stage under the condition of capacity expansion and supply-demand resonance. We expect that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the assembly of key types of weapons and equipment is expected to accelerate, the industry boom continues to improve, the allocation focus gradually tilts from the upstream to the middle and downstream, and the downstream enterprises have higher profit elasticity.
Risk tip: the stock market is risky and investment should be cautious
