Macroeconomic
In February, PMI warmed up more than expected, and steady growth achieved initial results. In February, the PMI of manufacturing industry rebounded slightly than expected, the internal and external demand improved simultaneously, and the production performance was stable, weaker than the seasonal decline; Affected by geopolitical risks, the price index rebounded, the demand was boosted, the inventory of raw materials and finished products fell at the same time, and the inventory of enterprises was reduced to some extent; In February, the prosperity differentiation of large, medium and small enterprises intensified, but with the continuous introduction of policies to protect the development of small and micro enterprises, the production and operation activities of small enterprises are expected to improve; In February, the PMI of non manufacturing industry rebounded, the construction industry index showed a super seasonal performance, and the service industry showed a weak repair trend. However, from the perspective of market expectations, the business activities of the service industry are expected to rebound sharply in February and are expected to recover gradually.
Policy focus
In China, the seed industry has been revitalized to ensure food security, and policies have been issued to stabilize coal pricing measures; The government has put forward new goals for its work, and the policy dividend will be renewed. First, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas focuses on promoting the revitalization of the seed industry and stabilizing food supply, aiming to deal with the global shortage of wheat and corn caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Second, the national development and Reform Commission proposed for the first time that the coal price should be clearly positioned, the benchmark price of coal should be raised, and the price volatility should be narrowed. Third, at the opening of the two sessions, Premier Li Keqiang's government work report clearly put forward the 2022 plan objectives, overweight infrastructure to help steady growth, a stable currency, smooth credit, support market players to ensure employment, promote carbon reduction and industrial digitization, and make specific prospects in economy, finance, enterprises and people's livelihood.
Overseas, overseas inflation has intensified, interest rate hikes have been determined and the pace has slowed down. Inflation pressure in Europe and the United States continues to increase, and the interest rate hike position is still firm. However, affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the downward pressure on the economy, the pace of interest rate hike will slow down. We should focus on the latest interest rate resolution next week. At the same time, the increase of European and American sanctions against Russia will not only have an impact on Russia, but also aggravate the disturbance of the rhythm of monetary normalization in Europe and the United States and slow it down.
General asset market
In the stock market, the international situation is uncertain for the time being, A-Shares are weak, Hong Kong technology stocks are frustrated, and US stocks open high and go low; In terms of monetary policy, monetary policy is stable and loose, and liquidity remains reasonably abundant; In the bond market, the yield of us 10 bonds turned downward, and the yield of Chinese treasury bonds fluctuated; In the foreign exchange market, risk aversion is heating up, the US dollar is higher, and the RMB shock is stronger; In the bulk commodity market, coal and non-ferrous metals rose strongly, and the oil price continued to reach a new high; In the real estate market, Zhengzhou relaxed the "recognition of both houses and loans" to help restore market confidence.
Risk tips
The economy accelerated downward; The policy is not as expected; Repeated outbreaks
