Events
The 2022 government work report proposed to "implement a new combined tax support policy... It is estimated that the annual tax rebate and tax reduction will be about 2.5 trillion yuan, of which about 1.5 trillion yuan will be retained, and all the tax rebate funds will go directly to enterprises."
The impact of tax reduction and rebate policy on the whole a mainly focuses on the VAT retention and rebate policy
The impact of tax reduction and rebate policy on the whole a mainly focuses on the VAT retention and rebate policy. The government work report puts forward that "we should adhere to the combination of phased measures and institutional arrangements, and carry out tax reduction and tax rebate simultaneously" in 2022. The above-mentioned tax reduction policy is mainly for small-scale and micro enterprises, which is mainly related to the annual tax reduction of 3 million yuan for small-scale and micro enterprises. The tax reduction policy is mainly for small-scale enterprises and micro enterprises, which is mainly related to the annual tax reduction of 1 million yuan for small-scale and micro enterprises. Therefore, we believe that the impact of the tax reduction and rebate policy on the performance of all a listed enterprises mainly focuses on the impact of the value-added tax rebate of RMB 1.5 trillion.
Referring to historical experience, we believe that all A-listed enterprises are expected to enjoy the refund of VAT stock retention tax this year, with a refund proportion of about 60%. In 2018, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the notice on tax policies related to the refund of value-added tax retention and credit in some industries in 2018 (CS [2018] No. 70), allowing 18 advanced manufacturing, modern service and power grid enterprises to carry out value-added tax retention and rebate under certain conditions, with the taxpayer's tax retention and credit at the end of 2017 as the upper limit. In 2019, the Ministry of finance, the State Administration of Taxation and the General Administration of Customs proposed to comprehensively try out the retention tax rebate system and no longer distinguish industries in the announcement on policies related to deepening the reform of value-added tax (2019 No. 39), However, the tax refund is limited to the incremental VAT allowance (i.e. the newly increased ending tax allowance compared with the end of March 2019, hereinafter referred to as the difference between incremental tax and stock tax), and the allowable refunded incremental tax allowance = incremental tax allowance × Proportion of input × 60%。 In April 2021, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the announcement on clarifying the tax rebate policy of value-added tax at the end of the period for advanced manufacturing industry, adding five categories of "medicine", "chemical fiber", "railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment", "electrical machinery and equipment" and "instruments and meters" to the advanced manufacturing industry in 2018, However, the scope of tax refund is still limited to incremental tax. As the government work report requires that the stock tax of small and micro enterprises be refunded in one time before the end of June, and the incremental retention tax is refunded in full, we believe that all a enterprises are also expected to enjoy the return of value-added tax stock retention tax, but the return proportion is expected to not exceed 60%.
It is estimated that the 1.5 trillion value-added tax rebate will benefit about 290 billion A-listed enterprises, increasing roe by about 0.54%
It is estimated that the 1.5 trillion value-added tax rebate will benefit all a listed enterprises by about 290 billion, increasing roe by about 0.54%. We take the all a listed companies on March 7 as the sample for analysis. Since all a takes the free circulation share capital as the weight, we selected the top 100 listed companies in the free circulation share capital (with a total weight of about 32.5%). According to the current accounting standards, the amount of value-added tax allowance and refund shall be listed in the ending balance in the financial statements. In view of this, while maintaining the integrity and comparability of the data, We sorted out the balances of "VAT input tax to be deducted", "VAT input tax to be deducted", "VAT input to be deducted" and other items related to VAT retention listed under "other assets" in the 2020 annual report of the above 100 listed enterprises. Some enterprises are listed according to the sum of advance payment and retention, and we convert it into the balance to be deducted according to 10%. After summing up, the amount of value-added tax reserve and tax credit of the above-mentioned enterprises totaled 219 billion yuan. According to the proportion of the owner's equity of the top 100 enterprises in the whole a, it is estimated that the value-added tax reserve and refund stock tax of all a listed enterprises is about 482.8 billion yuan. Assuming that the scale of the retained and refunded stock tax of all a listed enterprises is basically stable, and the stock tax is refunded at 60% this year, it is estimated that the retained and refunded value-added tax of 1.5 trillion this year will benefit all a listed enterprises by about 290 billion yuan, which can increase the roe by about 0.54% (calculated according to the 2020 owner's equity model corresponding to this data).
Risk tips
There are deviations in policy interpretation and historical data calculation.
