Index
On March 7, 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 337286 points, down 2.17%; Shenzhen composite index closed at 1257343 points, down 3.43%; The coal industry index closed at 287358 points, down 0.04%. The top three companies are: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , St continent. The non-ferrous metals index closed at 582065 points, down 0.36%. The top three companies are: Pengxin International Mining Co.Ltd(600490) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
Comments
The gold sector led the gains. As an important variety of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, gold is still likely to fluctuate violently in the short term. At present, the question that the market has been concerned about and discussed is whether the Russian Ukrainian war will bring about the continuous rise of gold price, that is, how likely is the risk aversion premium of gold to continue to enlarge. By counting the impact of local wars on the trend of gold price in recent years, it is found that the boosting effect of war on gold price is mainly related to the expected effectiveness of the market for the outbreak of war. At present, more than expected events occur frequently, and the price of gold is also strengthening. In addition, from the annual dimension, the logic of strategic long gold is still smooth. The US economic recession and the Federal Reserve’s difficulty in more radical interest rate hikes are the cards of the gold bull market.
On the other hand, the current US dollar gold pricing is significantly lower than that under inflation parity, which also shows that the inflation premium of gold is still in the fermentation stage. At present, the market’s expectation of future interest rate hikes is becoming stronger and stronger. It is expected that the gold price will continue to be strong in the process of this round of interest rate hikes. On the one hand, with the time coming to March, the gold price continues to be strong, indicating that the negative effect of the current interest rate hike on gold is weakening and the market expectation is gradually digesting. On the other hand, it is expected that this interest rate increase will have a limited impact on gold prices. During the past six interest rate hikes, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the United States has continued to increase, and it is difficult for interest rate hikes to have an essential impact on inflation. There is a high probability that the subsequent gold price will continue to strengthen. Since the beginning of the year, due to the high inflation in the United States and the repricing of monetary policy, the U.S. stocks and bonds have been killed, and the safe haven attribute of gold has regained its favor. Related objects: Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) .
Industry dynamics
On March 7, the Information Office of the State Council held a press conference on “upholding stability, seeking progress while maintaining stability, and promoting new progress in high-quality development”. He pointed out that the investment in oil and gas exploration and development will be greatly increased to promote the increase of oil and gas reserves and production; Orderly release the advanced coal production capacity and maintain the coal output at a reasonable level. (wind information)
Company dynamics
Jiangsu Baichuan High-Tech New Materials Co.Ltd(002455) ( Jiangsu Baichuan High-Tech New Materials Co.Ltd(002455) ): on March 7, it was said that the 50000 ton needle coke project and the 5000 ton graphite cathode material project of Ningxia company have been put into operation, and lithium iron phosphate, lithium battery recovery and other projects are under construction. (wind information)
Risk tip: the macro-economy is less than expected and geopolitical risks are escalating.
