1. Overall configuration: geopolitical conflicts escalate and fluctuations increase northward. Geopolitical conflicts escalated, interest rate hikes were expected to repeat, and the inflow to the North slowed down. In early February, the overseas inflation data again exceeded expectations. Combined with the strong non-agricultural data in January, the expected acceleration of interest rate hike in the United States increased, and the yield of 10-year US bonds rose above 2%. Superimposed on the fact that China’s new social finance greatly exceeded expectations, foreign capital significantly returned to large finance. In mid and late February, geopolitical risks were fermented, impacting global risk appetite, and U.S. stocks fluctuated violently in the opposite direction with the VIX Index. Then, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting minutes in January were “moderate”, and several officials of the Federal Reserve successively released “Dove” signals. The geographical impact superimposed the dove signals of the Federal Reserve. The interest rate increase in March exceeded 25bp, which was expected to fall significantly. The “V-shaped” rebound of US stocks accelerated their departure northward.
The admission of configuration disk was accelerated, the trading disk outflow was significant, and the position on the main board continued to rise. As of February 28, the accumulated net inflow of northbound funds in February was about 3.980 billion yuan. According to our disassembly and estimation, the allocation disk in February is still the main force of admission, with a net inflow of about 23.2 billion yuan in a single month, while the trading disk has a significant outflow of funds, with a net outflow of about 16.2 billion yuan in a single month. From the perspective of sector positions, the positions of the main board and the science and Innovation Board rose in February, while the positions of the gem fell. As of February 28, the positions of the main board, gem and Kechuang board were 81.93%, 16.90% and 1.17% respectively.
2. Style and structure: financial real estate gained the first share increase. Northbound capital increased its holdings of financial real estate in February, and most of the necessary consumption was reduced. From the perspective of capital splitting, other services and upstream resource sectors have been increased in consistency, and the differences are concentrated in other sectors. Trading sectors have reduced their holdings in other sectors, with a significant outflow of necessary consumption and midstream manufacturing.
3. Industry flow: the inflow of non-ferrous metals ranks first, and the outflow of computers is most. On the whole, the top three industries with net inflow in February were nonferrous metals, banking and transportation; The top three industries of net outflow are computer, pharmaceutical biology and basic chemical industry. At the trading level, the top three industries with net inflow are coal, non-ferrous metals and transportation; The top three industries with net outflow are power equipment, food and beverage and computer. At the allocation panel level, the top three industries with net inflow are banking, non-ferrous metals and power equipment in turn; The top three industries with net outflow are automobile, medicine, biology and steel.
4. Position distribution: nonferrous metal positions rise first, while household appliances positions fall mostly. In terms of northward position distribution, non-ferrous metal positions have increased significantly since February, while household appliances and food and beverage have mostly fallen. At the market value level, the market value of non-ferrous metals, banking and public utilities led the increase, while the market value of household appliances, food and beverage and computer industries mostly fell.
5. Allocation of individual shares: the shareholding concentration has decreased, and Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) has been the first to increase its holdings. On the whole, the top five stocks with net inflow are Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) ; The top five stocks of net outflow are Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) and Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) . At the trading level, the top five stocks with net inflow are China stock market news, Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) and China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) ; The top five stocks of net outflow are Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) . At the allocation panel level, the top five stocks of net inflow are Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) ; The top five stocks of net outflow are Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , China stock market news, Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) and Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) .
Risk tips: 1. Increased volatility in overseas markets; 2. Exchange rate depreciation risk.
