On the morning of March 5, 2022, the fifth session of the 13th National People’s Congress opened, and Premier Li Keqiang delivered the government work report. The government work report sets the annual GDP growth rate at about 5.5%, which reflects the determination to stabilize growth under triple pressure. Under the guidance of this goal, the policy is more active and promising. Specifically, the following points deserve attention in this government work report.
The economic growth rate of 5.5% reflects the determination of policy initiative and the positive intention of stabilizing growth. The government work report sets the annual economic growth target at about 5.5%, which reflects three meanings: first, the growth rate of 5.5% means that the economy operates on the potential growth rate; Second, stabilizing employment and ensuring people’s livelihood need to be based on certain economic growth; Third, the economic growth rate of 5.5% reflects the determination of the policy to take the initiative. Although it is difficult to finally achieve the goal of 5.5%, the government’s intention to actively stabilize growth is very strong.
The main focus of growth is to expand domestic demand. Expanding domestic demand mainly has two meanings: one is to promote the sustained recovery of consumption, and the other is to actively expand effective investment. There are three main aspects in promoting consumption policies: first, increasing residents’ income, increasing residents’ income through stable employment, and improving the income distribution mechanism through common prosperity; Second, enhance the willingness to consume; Third, repair consumption scenes, optimize and improve epidemic prevention and control measures. In the three major areas of investment, infrastructure investment has made significant efforts, the amount of special bonds is the same as last year, the issuance speed has been accelerated, and major projects have been accelerated; Affordable housing and real estate investment; The manufacturing sector promotes technological upgrading and capital expenditure expansion.
The macro policy tone is more positive and the structure is more effective. The overall tone of macro policies is more positive and the implementation is strengthened. At the same time, this government work report also attaches great importance to the effectiveness of macro policies. From the perspective of structure, fiscal policies increase the protection of people’s livelihood, and monetary policies strengthen the support of entities. The proactive fiscal policy has improved efficiency. The deficit ratio has decreased, but the expenditure intensity has not decreased. The special debt has made efforts to build infrastructure, and the public finance has more support for people’s livelihood. On the one hand, the tax reduction and fee reduction efforts continue to increase, and the force is more accurate. On the other hand, it is to increase the transfer payment efforts to help the grass-roots three guarantees. Strengthen the implementation of monetary policy to promote credit easing. Give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of aggregate and structure, provide more powerful support for the real economy, and clearly point out that to “expand the scale of new loans”, on the one hand, we need to continue to expand monetary power and promote financial institutions to reduce real loan interest rates. The window period of monetary easing has not yet ended; On the other hand, we also need to dredge the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, strengthen the use of structural monetary policy tools, and guide the flow of funds to key areas and weak links.
The long-term objectives of the policy should be coordinated with the short-term objectives. From the perspective of the conflict between long-term economic transformation and short-term economic growth, three types of policies highlighted this contradiction last year: real estate policy, capital supervision policy and energy transformation policy. The real estate policy should adhere to the long-term positioning of housing without speculation, and relax due to urban policies in the short term. It is expected that some second tier and third and fourth tier cities will continue to introduce active regulatory policies to stabilize the local real estate market. Correctly understand and grasp the characteristics and behavior laws of capital, and support and guide the standardized and healthy development of capital. The policy statement on capital in this government work report continues the tone of the central economic work conference. We should not only give full play to the positive role of capital as a factor of production, but also support and guide capital regulation through appropriate regulatory policies. Establish first and then break, and orderly promote carbon peak and carbon neutralization. The assessment requirements for dual control of energy consumption in this government work report are “to make an overall assessment within the 14th Five Year Plan period, with appropriate flexibility, and the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control”. However, for high energy consumption, high emission and low-level projects, we should resolutely curb their blind development.
