On March 8, the third round of Russia Ukraine ended fruitlessly, but the Ukrainian side proposed to discuss the problems of Crimea and Donbas. The Ukrainian president has been disheartened about joining NATO, and the situation may turn for the better soon. In terms of energy, electricity prices in Europe have continued to rise since the outbreak of the conflict, with an increase of more than 170% in some regions. The European Union said that it would seek faster energy transformation and reduce its energy dependence on Russia this year, but after all, “far water can’t save near fire”; In addition, it is reported that the United States has also planned to ban oil imports from Russia, or will continue to boost oil prices and push up global economic risks.
Be alert to the adjustment pressure of global tightening policies on risky assets. This week will usher in the US February CPI and the European central bank interest rate meeting. At present, the rising inflation in the world is forcing the major central banks to accelerate the pace of tightening. According to the minutes of the European Central Bank meeting, members believe that the main risk at present is too late to tighten monetary policy. On March 2, Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell mentioned “starting to reduce the balance sheet after the first interest rate increase”, which does not rule out the possibility of starting to reduce the balance sheet from March to April. In the follow-up, we need to be vigilant against the negative impact of table shrinkage on financial assets. We back test that since 2007, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has a significant correlation with financial assets, with a significant positive correlation with US stocks as high as 0.9, a negative correlation with US bond interest rate as high as -0.849, and a certain positive correlation with Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 of 0.68. In addition, in the shrinking stage from 2017 to 2019, the correlation between the commodity index and the Fed’s balance sheet was -0.29, and the higher correlations in the commodity sector were grains (- 0.81), agricultural and sideline products (- 0.68) and soft commodities (0.82).
At present, it still takes time for China’s loose policy to be transmitted to the real economy. We always believe that the first quarter is the bottom grinding stage of domestic demand, and domestic demand will gradually rebound in the second quarter. Under the game of strong expectation and weak reality, the short-term market may have shock adjustment, and the market may have shock adjustment. After domestic demand stabilizes and further improves, We suggest to continue to buy domestic demand industrial products on bargain hunting in the medium term; Crude oil chain commodities need to be vigilant against the easing of the situation in Ukraine and Russia and the adjustment risks brought about by the conclusion of the US Iran nuclear negotiations Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) the bullish logic based on supply bottleneck and cost transmission is still relatively smooth; In terms of precious metals, as the CPI of the United States in January hit a new high since the 1980s, supported by the logic of overseas stagflation, the risk of superimposing Russia Ukraine conflict still exists, and precious metals maintained the view of bargain hunting and long; The continuous favorable policies of the two sessions, coupled with Tianliang social financing and continuous liquidity easing, will support the profit expectation of listed enterprises. We still maintain the view that the shareholding index is bargain hunting and long.
Strategy (strength ranking): Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (soybean, soybean meal, etc.), bargain hunting and long of precious metals; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), and industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal);
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; The deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; The situation in Russia and Ukraine.
