If the Fed hawks intensively raise interest rates, it is not that the US economy has come out under the epidemic, and the increase in the tolerance of long-term average inflation of 2.5% under the framework of the new monetary policy is naturally difficult to be consistent with the current inflation level, but the remedial action of the fed when the monetary policy obviously runs behind the inflation curve. Since it is a remedial action, the rhythm and probability of hawkish interest rate hike should be top heavy and look left and right, but it is expected that the management pressure will be significantly ahead. We prefer the fed to raise interest rates by 50bp after easing ended in March to curb the year-on-year acceleration of inflation. There is a possibility of raising interest rates in May and June, but the market expectation of raising interest rates by 150bp for the whole year is too hawkish, and it is difficult for the economy to return to the past after the epidemic.
It is unavoidable that the Fed, as a world-class bank, has a significant impact on the globalization of monetary policy, especially in the interest rate hike cycle. The world's major economies mostly follow the Fed's monetary policy. However, it should also be noted that China and the United States are also large economies with independent monetary policy. In 22 years, the US monetary policy turned to tightening in order to deal with inflation, so China's monetary policy naturally needs to deal with the triple pressure and implement monetary policy. From the perspective of the function of monetary policy, it is obvious that overseas interest rate hikes cannot determine that China's monetary policy will continue to be loose. From the perspective of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle from 2015 to 2018, China did not cut interest rates in the process of the Fed's interest rate hike, but in the face of the downward pressure on China's macro-economy in 2018, it conducted three RRR cuts, but the RRR reduction period is at the end of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle. At present, China's monetary policy focuses more on me. In the face of the current triple macroeconomic pressure, although the Fed's monetary policy turns to tightening, it does not determine that China's monetary policy will exit from easing or even further relax. However, at the operation time node, the probability before and after the Fed's interest rate increase is greater than that at the initial stage.
In terms of macro strategy, China's macroeconomic policy bottom and financial bottom have appeared. Due to the urban policy, the deregulation of real estate credit policy has also appeared. The expectation of wide credit is accelerating, and the bond market is obviously under pressure recently. But looking ahead, broad credit needs broad monetary support. At least the latter will not be tight. Otherwise, loose credit will lead to a rise in money supply less than demand, and interest rates will rise. This does not apply to the current weak economic environment in China. At present, monetary easing has been implemented, the short-term easing window is closing, the credit easing expectation is starting, and the follow-up data need to be observed. In the medium and long term, we still need to further see that the combination of Finance + infrastructure can bear the heavy responsibility of steady growth. Overall, we are not pessimistic about the performance of Shanghai 50 index futures with a higher proportion of blue chips. After the index adjustment in December of 21, the weight of growth stocks increased significantly, and the public fund track was crowded. Affected by the real estate regulation, the weight of value blue chips decreased significantly. In the process of sector adjustment, both positive and negative aspects dragged down the performance of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index, and the adjustment is the opportunity of allocation. In terms of rhythm and risk points, looking forward to the FOMC meeting on March 16, as the Fed has not made too many statements in the early stage, the clues are limited and the market has not been traded, so the focus of the market in March should be the table contraction path. The uncertainty of market risk on the risk release of the Fed's monetary easing shift is to shrink the table rather than increase interest rates. If market sentiment is released later, Low level configuration and holding strategy can be considered.
