Event overview
On March 9, 2022, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the CPI and PPI in February 2022. The year-on-year CPI was 0.9%, the expected value was 0.8%, and the previous value was 0.9%; PPI was 8.8% year-on-year, the expected value was 8.7%, and the previous value was 9.1%;
Investment view
The impact of the price rise of crude oil and nonferrous metals has initially appeared, and the decline range of PPI may be narrowed
Although PPI continued to fall year-on-year, it began to turn from decline to rise month on month due to the rise of crude oil, nonferrous metals and other bulk prices; The rise in non food prices offset the drag of the decline in pork prices on CPI, which was flat year-on-year. In the future, the impact of geographical conflict on the supply of crude oil, nonferrous metals and other bulk commodities will continue, and the prices of relevant commodities may continue to remain high, resulting in the decline of subsequent PPI (at least before Q2) may be narrowed. For CPI, the supply of live pigs is still too large in the first half of the year. With the addition of the off-season of meat consumption after the festival, the price of pigs may further decline, while the rise of crude oil prices will continue to rise through the sub items of transportation fuel and hydropower fuel. However, with the drag of pork, CPI will continue to rise moderately in the first half of the year, with a probability of less than 2%, It is difficult to restrict monetary policy.
In February, CPI rose flat year-on-year and expanded month on month; The year-on-year decline of food expanded, and non food continued to rise year-on-year
The year-on-year CPI in February was 0.9%, which was the same as that in January. The year-on-year differentiation between food and non food was the main reason for the year-on-year CPI in February. Food prices fell by - 3.9% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1pct over the previous month, affecting the decline of CPI by about 0.76 percentage points; Non food prices rose by 2.1% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month, affecting the CPI to rise by 1.68 percentage points. CPI rose 0.6% month on month (MOM) from 0.4% in the previous month, and the increase expanded by 0.2pct.
Food and non food prices increased month on month
Food prices rose 0.6% month on month, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month. Fresh vegetables, aquatic products and fresh fruits continued to rise month on month, which was the main reason for the expansion of food prices month on month, while pork prices continued to decline month on month. Affected by the sharp increase in residents' demand for fruits, vegetables and aquatic products during the Spring Festival, the prices of fresh vegetables, aquatic products and fresh fruits increased by 6.0%, 4.8% and 3.0% respectively, and the prices of chicken, duck, cattle and mutton increased by 0.3% - 1.4%. Due to the relatively sufficient supply of pork, the price of pork decreased by 4.6 percentage points month on month, an increase of 2.1pct over the previous month. In the first half of this year, the supply pressure of live pigs is still not small. With the addition of the off-season of post Festival meat consumption, pig prices may be further explored.
Non food prices rose by 0.4% month on month, an increase of 0.2pct over the previous month, affecting the rise of CPI by about 0.34 percentage points. The rise in the price of industrial consumer goods was the main contribution. The price of industrial consumer goods increased by 0.8% from the same level last month, which is mainly related to the impact of the rise in crude oil prices. Among them, the prices of gasoline, diesel and LPG increased by 6.2%, 6.7% and 1.3% respectively; The service price changed from a 0.3% rise in the previous month to a flat one. The local Chinese new year has led to an increase in cultural and entertainment consumption and suburban tourism, a 9.3% rise in the price of film and performance tickets, and a 2.2% rise in the price of home stay and other accommodation. The continuous return of migrant workers after the festival has increased the service supply, and the prices of housekeeping services and maternal and child care services have decreased by 6.8% and 1.9% respectively.
The core CPI excluding food and energy prices was 1.1% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
In February, PPI continued to fall year-on-year, and the sharp rise in the prices of crude oil and nonferrous metals drove PPI from decline to rise month on month
In February, PPI increased by 8.8% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the means of production increased by 11.4% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points; The means of living increased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year by 0.9%. PPI rose 0.5% month on month (MOM) from a 0.2% decline in the previous month.
Driven by the sharp rise of international crude oil and nonferrous metals, PPI changed from decline to rise in February. Among them, the price of oil exploitation increased by 13.5%, the manufacturing price of refined petroleum products increased by 6.5%, the manufacturing price of organic chemical raw materials increased by 2.9%, and the price of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 2.0%. However, with the continuous promotion of China's supply guarantee policy, coal prices continued to fall, and the prices of coal mining and washing industry and coal processing decreased by 2.4%. In addition, the price of power and heat production and supply industry increased by 0.9%, and the price of non-metallic mineral products industry decreased by 1.0%.
