In dollar terms, the year-on-year growth rate of export amount from January to February 2022 was 16.3% (the previous value was 20.9%); The year-on-year growth rate of import amount was 15.5% (the previous value was 19.5%). The trade balance was 115.95 billion US dollars, compared with 94.46 billion US dollars. Overall, China's imports and exports remained resilient from January to February.
Export growth exceeded expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of exports this month remained high, mainly due to the continuous repair of overseas production chains, the gradual repair of offline life and the rise of prices. From the perspective of major countries and regions, thanks to the high base effect in the same period in 2021, exports to the United States and Japan fell slightly, while exports to the EU (24%) fell slightly, but exports to ASEAN (13.3%) rose against the trend, which may be related to the continuous promotion and deepening of RCEP. In terms of products, the export of mechanical and electrical products, textile raw materials and products maintained resilience under the principle of raw material accumulation and favorable tariff concessions of RCEP. At the same time, with the slowdown of the epidemic in Europe and the United States, the export growth rate of medical materials decreased significantly.
Import growth slowed slightly. From January to February 2022, China's imports increased by 15.5% year-on-year, down from 19.5% in December last year, mainly due to the high base effect and the slowdown of domestic demand. Since the end of last year, the pressure on China's steady growth has continued to appear. The PMI import index has been lower than the boom and bust line for nine consecutive months. The continued high commodity prices caused by the recent geopolitical crisis are all the reasons for China's high import growth. From the perspective of commodity price trend, the high import price of commodities is still the main contributor to the import amount.
With the recovery of the overall overseas economy, the support for China's foreign trade has increased. Subsequently, if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to exceed expectations, the impact on the global supply chain is expected to continue to disturb China's import and export. Overall, considering the high base of China's import and export data and the gradual control of overseas epidemic, China's foreign trade may be under pressure this year, but the decline is expected to be relatively flat.
Risk tips
The epidemic development exceeded expectations; The progress of reform is less than expected; Economic data exceeded expectations; Uncertainty risk, etc.
