Looking back on Tuesday’s A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued the pattern of shock and decline. The three major A-share indexes rose and fell at the beginning of the trading. After the shock consolidation at the beginning of the trading, there was a consistent decline, and the stock index showed signs of stabilization near noon; In the afternoon, the stock index once showed signs of rising and was suppressed and fell again. On the whole, the decline of A-Shares is obvious.
As Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) mentioned, the current A-share market is affected by multiple factors, the overall shock is downward, and it is in the stage of centralized release of systemic risks. Except for a few defense industries, most industries fall in turn, it is expected that the stock indexes of the two cities will have a greater possibility of finding the bottom of shock before the external market stops falling and stabilizes effectively .
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that the sentiment of the A-share market has deteriorated significantly this week. The two cities have closed down in large quantities for two consecutive days, which may have caused some panic. The volatility of the external market has intensified, weakening the role of the “safe haven” of the Chinese market. Under the background of weak sentiment, the A-share market may be more vulnerable to the impact of the external market in the short term, so it is emphasized again to maintain relative caution in allocation. At the same time, there are some structural opportunities in the shock. We suggest that in the adjustment of market shock, grasp the two main lines of the guidance of meso industrial policy and the restoration of the prosperity of the oversold sector, stick to the high-quality target and wait for the opportunity to counterattack .
As far as the future market is concerned, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) also makes further analysis, suggests that investors should watch more and move less. They should not rush to copy the bottom and wait patiently for the periodic bottom signal of the market to be clear before considering going long . It is expected that the Shanghai stock index is more likely to continue to shock and decline in the short term, and the gem is more likely to continue to explore and seek support in the short term. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Macroscopically, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that if the Fed starts raising interest rates in March, it will have a “lag curve” of about 2-3 quarters it is estimated that the end point of this round of interest rate increase may be around 2% – 2.25%. This year, the pace of interest rate increase may be urgent first and then slow down. The interest rate may be increased four times throughout the year. The time point of interest rate increase is mainly distributed in the first half of the year, and the interest rate increase will be 3-4 times in 2023, and the cycle of this round of interest rate increase will end . International conflicts will strengthen the Fed’s determination to raise interest rates and curb inflation in the short term, but it will increase the uncertainty of the Fed’s policy in the medium and long term. The Fed will keep its policy cautious and flexible according to the economic situation.
In terms of operational strategy, Guosheng Securities said that recent increase in the risk of global economic stagflation, uncertain international situation, repeated outbreaks outside China and other adverse factors have greatly affected the market’s risk appetite . At present, coal, nonferrous metals, assisted reproduction and other sectors with relatively strong performance in the near future have significantly made up for the decline, while individual stocks in the sectors with relatively low valuation and sufficient adjustment in the early stage show stronger toughness, and there can be some emphasis on the direction of stock selection in the future.
The agency further pointed out that should watch more and move less, control positions and wait for the market stop signal . We can pay attention to the timing of the layout of sectors with high performance growth expectations, such as semiconductors, new infrastructure and new power, or it can be a good choice under the current market.
Minsheng securities mentioned that some wait-and-see investors are still waiting for a new main line in the market, but in fact, the new main line in the market has been established and the real cycle is beginning . We understand the underlying logic of investors’ concerns about assets that “rely on price judgment”: in the past, the inflation center moved down, and the best price judgment strategy is to avoid such assets. However, the environment has been changing, the upward movement of inflation center has been established, and the appreciation path of physical assets is very obvious. Therefore, avoiding assets relying on price judgment should not be a wise choice, and the inertial thinking needs to be broken.
The agency further analyzed that under the deflationary environment in the past, the assets used to think of as “high-quality” also need to be judged again, and the main line of “hard waiting” of some investors may leave for a long time at present, the order we recommend is: the inflation transaction is the most certain, buying nonferrous metals (copper, aluminum, gold), crude oil (oil transportation, oil and gas exploitation) and coal; The probability of demand recovery is increasing, and the layout: Bank, real estate and construction .
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said that followed the “currency credit” hot wheel this year, with steady growth in the first half of the year. Under the expectation of stable growth, both currency and credit are wide, which is good for stocks and commodities . In terms of theme investment, focus on specialization and innovation, industrial upgrading and ESG. In the medium and long term, China’s economic momentum and industrial structure are gradually moving from large consumption to high-end manufacturing, paying attention to new infrastructure and high-tech sectors, and seizing the opportunities of green economy and digital wave.
