During the Spring Festival, we will strengthen supply and price stability and epidemic prevention and control; Monetary policy covers the real estate market risks; LPR asymmetric interest rate cut; The time of the two sessions will be determined. The order of asset allocation of major categories: bulk > bonds > stocks > currencies.
Review of macro highlights
Economic data: none.
Highlights: the central office and the State Council Office will strengthen market supply and price stability during the new year's day and Spring Festival in 2022; The joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council issued the work plan for the prevention and control of covid-19 pneumonia during the new year's day and Spring Festival in 2022; Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Guizhou, Henan, Shanghai, Beijing and other provinces and cities, as well as the Shenzhen tax bureau have successively issued notices; The central bank and the China Banking Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued the notice on doing a good job in M & a financial services for risk disposal projects of key real estate enterprises; The convening time of the national two sessions will be determined in 2022; The Tariff Commission of the State Council published the list of the sixth extension of the exclusion of goods with additional tariffs imposed on the United States; The central bank and other departments jointly issued the plan for Chengdu and Chongqing to jointly build a western financial center.
Asset performance review
The position adjustment period at the end of the year affects the performance of a shares. This week, the CSI 300 index fell 0.67%, and the CSI 300 stock index futures fell 0.87%; Coking coal futures rose 5.81% this week, and the main iron ore contract rose 3.52% this week; The expected yield of financial management of joint-stock banks fell 0 BP to 1.92%, and the 7-day annualized yield of yu'e Bao fell 1 BP to 2.04%; The yield of ten-year Treasury bonds fell 3bp to 2.82%, and the active ten-year Treasury bond futures rose 0.26% this week.
Asset allocation suggestions
Asset allocation: bulk > bonds > stocks > currencies. From the perspective of China's economic situation, the year-on-year growth rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter may fall below 4%. The economic growth in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to be higher than that in the fourth quarter of 2021, but inflation will be significantly higher due to the low base. Based on the policy pre adjustment and fine-tuning, the current monetary policy has implemented a comprehensive reserve requirement reduction and an asymmetric interest rate reduction in December, and the fiscal policy has also issued the special bond quota for 2022 in advance. Therefore, under the circumstances of the large amount of social finance at the beginning of the year, the ending of economic data in 2021 in January, the blank of economic data in February and the convening of the two sessions in March, China may be mainly in the wait-and-see period of macro policy effect. Superimposed on the impact of investors' position adjustment at the beginning of the year and the expected performance of the annual report, the valuation of RMB risk assets may be adjusted downward. The risk factor that may impact macro policy is whether the rising speed and range of US inflation will have an impact on the Fed's monetary policy by raising interest rates in advance than expected.
Risk tip: global inflation is rising too fast; Liquidity flows back to US debt; The impact of the global covid-19 epidemic has expanded.
