Key investment points:
The main A-share indexes closed lower collectively. During the week from December 20 to December 24, the major stock indexes in Europe and America rebounded, while the major stock indexes of A-Shares fell collectively. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3618.05 points, down 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.06%, the gem index fell 4.00%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.67%, and the Kechuang 50 fell 2.88%. This week, most of the Shenwan level industries fell, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, construction materials, etc., and power equipment, non-ferrous metals, steel, basic chemical industry, etc.
Market sentiment remains cautious. The turnover of the two markets continued to exceed trillion yuan in five trading days this week. At present, the turnover of A-Shares has exceeded trillion yuan in 46 consecutive trading days. The average daily turnover of Wande a during the week was 1083.745 billion yuan, a decrease of about 80.884 billion yuan compared with last week. Except the Shanghai Composite Index, the turnover rate of major stock indexes continued to fall. As of the closing on December 24, the balance of margin trading and securities lending in the A-share market was 1831.997 billion yuan, down 9.962 billion yuan from last week, falling for four consecutive weeks; This week’s two financial transactions amounted to 405.605 billion yuan, down 41.632 billion yuan from last week; Two financial transactions accounted for 7.47% of the A-share turnover, down 0.22 percentage points from last week. This week, the land stock connect was only open for four trading days due to holiday factors, with a net outflow of RMB 1.221 billion from the North compared with the previous week, ending the previous five consecutive weeks of net inflow trend.
Investment suggestion: on December 24, the fourth quarter regular meeting of the monetary policy committee of the people’s Bank of China in 2021 was held in Beijing. The judgment on the economic situation continued the tone of the central economic work conference. At present, under the expectation of triple pressure, the attention of “steady growth” has increased, requiring the monetary policy to be more active and promising, stabilize the macroeconomic market and support high-quality economic development. The meeting also pointed out that we will maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity and enhance the stability of the growth of total credit. The market is expected that the central bank will continue to reduce the reserve requirement, and the possibility of interest rate reduction is not ruled out. Investors’ expectations of further easing of monetary policy are rising, which is good for the liquidity of A-share market and may boost trading sentiment. In terms of industry configuration: 1) it is recommended to pay attention to the required consumption with bottom rebound and strong risk aversion attribute; 2) Undervalued blue chip sectors such as banks and securities companies benefiting from the expectation of monetary easing; 3) The demand for “steady growth” has been strengthened. In 2022, the amount of special bonds will be approved in advance, and attention can be paid to the infrastructure sector.
Risk factors: the epidemic situation is repeated, the macro-economy is lower than expected, and the inflation is higher than expected.
