Overall judgment of stock market in 2022
(1) Economic fundamentals: in 2022, exports showed a return to the mean value, but still had some resilience; real estate fundamentals still had downward pressure in the first half of the year, and hedging means were mainly affordable housing and infrastructure, but it is expected to achieve a soft landing under the support of various policies; the inertia support of manufacturing investment increased rapidly, infrastructure investment benefited from financial power, but it is still relatively limited, and the consumption margin improved, The overall economic fundamentals show the characteristics of slow decline first and then slow recovery.
(2) Policy and liquidity: the central economic work conference set the tone for steady growth, and the policy portfolio shows the characteristics of wide currency and stable credit. The next three months will be an intensive period of steady growth policies, but the policy strength is slightly restrained. It is expected that the market as a whole will show the characteristics of structural slow bull.
(3) Corporate profits and Valuation: in 2022, PPI peaked and fell, the growth rate of corporate profits will fall, and the expected growth rate of earnings of major stock indexes will fall. However, considering the general tone of loose policy and stable growth, the correction and unified understanding of policies such as real estate risk resolution, platform and capital supervision, double carbon and common prosperity, and the tactical easing period of China US relations are conducive to the market as a whole With the improvement of market risk appetite, the overall market valuation in 2022 is expected to get rid of the overall pressure in 2021 and expand slightly again. The overall market still shows the characteristics of structural slow bull. There are still some opportunities in the bond market in the first quarter, but the overall opportunities in the whole year are mainly trading and structural.
(4) Market structure and style characteristics: from the perspective of valuation and performance growth, the overall market style in 2022 is biased towards growth stocks and small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks. Value stocks mainly outperform in the intensive period of stable growth policy and expected economic stabilization and recovery period. There are opportunities in the first quarter and the second half of the year. From the theme, high-quality development, green economy and scientific and technological innovation Stocks representing China’s industrial upgrading and scientific and technological innovation in fields such as (specialized in special innovation and invisible champion) have good investment value.
(5) Focus on: hydrogen energy, wind power, photovoltaic, new energy vehicle industry chain, virtual reality, meta universe, 5g applications, Internet cloud computing, new materials, etc. have high investment value; they are concentrated in TMT, new energy and new materials, and dual carbon fields. There is still room for exploration in fields representing China’s high-quality development, such as military industry, high-end equipment manufacturing, specialized new giants, etc.
