On December 23, the price of natural gas in Europe hit a new high and plunged. Among them, the price of TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures was 126 euros / MWh, equivalent to 41.81 US dollars / mmbtu, down more than 27%; Ice UK natural gas futures price 303p / Semm, equivalent to US $40.64/mmbtu, down more than 35%.
Since 2021, the three major price indexes have risen rapidly. The prices of HH, TTF and JKM have increased by 135%, 340.9% and 119.7% respectively from the beginning of the year to the middle of November. Due to the soaring prices of natural gas and electricity, Europe has frequently fallen into an energy crisis. On December 21, 2021 local time, the price of natural gas soared by more than 20% in a single day, reaching a record high again. In addition, electricity prices in Europe are also soaring, and electricity prices in many countries have set a record high.
One of the sources of the surge in natural gas in Europe is Germany’s “Beixi No. 2”. Beixi No. 2 was originally Russia’s natural gas transmission project to Europe. Due to the Ukrainian incident, NATO collectively decided to impose sanctions on Russia, while “Lanxi No. 1” transit through Ukraine. In order to prevent the limitation of natural gas transmission projects, Russia is actively promoting the “Beixi No. 2” project. Due to the shortage of natural gas, European and Asian enterprises are competing for natural gas resources. As a result, European natural gas inventories continue to fall, driving up gas prices. German Foreign Minister Burke’s statement on “it is impossible to obtain approval now” for the “beixi-2” natural gas pipeline project on December 13 exacerbated the concerns of the European market about natural gas supply.
Carbon neutrality, extreme weather and international political environment may be the factors driving the price rise of natural gas for a long time. The rising carbon price in Europe will promote the short-term shift from coal-fired power generation to natural gas power generation, while oil and gas companies will join the carbon neutral LNG transaction, and the green premium will raise the price center in the long term.
In the context of the surge in natural gas demand, natural gas producing countries have increased investment and expanded production capacity in order to seize the current dividend period and realize the resource exploitation as soon as possible. The expansion of natural gas projects will maintain the global natural gas supply at a relatively sufficient level in the future, which will further ensure the stability of medium and long-term natural gas prices.
Since 2008, the growth rate of market scale of thin film capacitor industry has continued to expand. The application of thin film capacitor in the field of new energy vehicles is mainly divided into three parts: new energy vehicle inverter On board charger (OBC) and supporting charging pile. The core of new energy vehicles is “three electricity” , the inverter is subordinate to the electric drive system. Its duty is to convert the high-voltage DC output by the power battery or battery into three-phase AC with variable current and frequency for the motor to operate, so as to control the driving speed of the vehicle. During braking, the inverter can rectify the three-phase AC into DC to charge the power battery. The existence of inverter makes the start of electric / hybrid vehicle faster.
Recently, Baijiu enterprises have announced the price increase. In December 24th, Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) raised 20-50 yuan / bottle of Baijiu mountain series liquor. On December 23, Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) raised the price of its qinghuazui and Qingchun series by 5% – 20%. Previously Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) raised prices successively, with a price increase range of 4% – 9%. Since the second half of this year, food and beverage enterprises have intensively announced price increases. Since September, Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) Wusu series, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) Chunsheng series and other well-known brands have successively completed price increases, opening the third round of collective price increases in the beer industry after 2020. In October, Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Jiajia Food Group Co.Ltd(002650) and other seasoning and fermentation products industry companies raised prices one after another, with a price increase range of 3% – 15%. In November, Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) , Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) and other snack and pre processed food industry companies raised prices one after another, with a price increase range of 3% – 10%. In December, Baijiu company began to announce price rise.
The direct reason for the rise in food and beverage prices is the continuous rise in the costs of raw materials, transportation and energy. Taking beer as an example, in terms of raw materials, imported barley has reached a record high price this year, with a year-on-year increase of more than 20%. On the other hand, packaging materials and manufacturing processes account for the vast majority of the cost of beer manufacturers, so the price changes of packaging materials such as aluminum and glass also have a great impact on the cost.
Weekly meso data
Upstream, the prices of Brent light crude oil, NYMEX light crude oil and NYMEX natural gas all rose. In terms of coal prices, coking coal and coke futures prices rose, while power coal futures prices fell. Power coal prices in Newcastle, Richard and Europe rose across the board, and the number of ships at anchorage increased. LME nonferrous Futures Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead and nickel prices rose, while tin prices fell. COMEX gold, copper and silver prices rose. Metal lithium price and Jiangxi tungsten concentrate price both rose, and BDI decreased significantly. In the middle reaches, the futures and spot prices of rebar increased slightly, the operating rate of blast furnace decreased slightly, the capacity utilization rate of steel plant decreased, and the average price of cement decreased significantly. Viscose filament, PTA and PVC of chemical products increased, the prices of polyester staple fiber, methanol and natural rubber decreased, and MDI in Shandong increased slightly. The overall price of photovoltaic products fell.
Downstream, the transaction area of commercial housing in the top ten cities increased. The average price of white feather chicken rebounded, and the wholesale price index of vegetables in Shandong continued to decline.
Risk tip: policy risk
