Market review: the two cities made a sharp correction, led by national defense and military industry
Today, the two cities made a deep correction. As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 0.91% to 3597.00 and the Shenzhen index fell 1.24% to 14653.82. In terms of sectors, national defense and military industry, transportation and comprehensive growth led, while food and beverage, public utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery led the decline. The turnover of the two cities was 997.29 billion yuan, down 0.53% from the previous trading day and 5.00% from the average of the previous five days. The net purchase of Shanghai Stock connect was 186 million yuan, the net purchase of Shenzhen Stock connect was 476 million yuan, and the actual net purchase of northbound funds throughout the day was 662 million yuan.
Market focus:
On December 29, Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) released data showing that the quotation of some lithium battery materials rose again, and electrolytic cobalt rose by 1000-2500 yuan / ton; Cobalt carbonate rose by 5000 yuan / ton; Metal lithium increased by 30000 yuan / ton; Lithium carbonate increased by 5000 yuan / ton; Lithium hydroxide increased by 4500-5000 yuan / ton.
Strategy suggestion: focus on the medium and long-term layout value of lithium plate
Today, the two cities fluctuated lower throughout the day, the Shanghai index fell below 3600 points, and the north capital reappeared a small net inflow. The market turnover was less than trillion yuan, which could shrink significantly compared with the middle of the month. At the same time, the performance of small and medium-sized stocks is still relatively better than the market, and the decline of China Securities 1000 and China Securities 500 is significantly smaller than that of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai Securities 50. In terms of the general trend of a shares, we believe that the market style may deduce the gradual switching process. Looking back on 2021, the structure of the A-share market is obviously differentiated, and the performance of small and medium-sized stocks is obviously dominant. In the face of the overall environment with weak fundamentals and reasonable and abundant macro liquidity, A-Shares lack the internal driving force for the overall upward trend, and the probability of systemic risk is low. The structural behavior will still be further interpreted, The style may switch from small and medium-sized market to market value and market growth. First, the performance of small and medium-sized stocks may have been released intensively this year. Under the downward trend of overall profit expectation and high base effect, the callback risk is relatively large. Second, the market growth is expected to maintain a high boom driven by industrial logic. It is suggested to pay attention to the coverage targets such as entrepreneurship 50 and entrepreneurship blue chip. Third, the market value has a strong risk aversion attribute, or can obtain excess benefits under the economic downward trend.
Plate, Baijiu plate today experienced depth adjustment, north capital has recently accelerated the outflow of Baijiu plate. We believe that the consumer sector that has continued to callback may have a better performance in 2022, and the sectors of household appliances, auto parts and mass food have relatively higher certainty, so we suggest to focus on it. In addition, the price of lithium carbonate rose again, driving the continued strong performance of today's lithium plate, and the concept plates such as salt lake lithium extraction and lithium battery negative electrode led the increase. The medium and long-term positive trend of the demand of the new energy industry chain remains unchanged, which is expected to support the lithium sector to maintain a high prosperity. At the same time, the change of lithium reserves and the expansion of enterprise capacity may change the profit logic of the lithium sector, and the price is dominant or will gradually cover the dominant transformation. It is suggested to take into account the growth attribute of lithium and consider both volume and price, The medium and long-term layout shall be carried out according to the change of performance and cashability of specific targets.
Risk tip: the macro-economy is less than expected, the national epidemic is more than expected, and the geopolitical risk is intensified
