Key investment points:
Per capita disposable income continues to grow, consumer confidence spending is still high, and consumption upgrading is the general trend in the long run. In 2021q1-3, the cumulative per capita disposable income of Chinese urban residents reached 35900 yuan / person, an increase of 8.7% over 2020q1-3 and a compound growth rate of 6.1% over 2019q1-3. Although the epidemic has repeatedly impacted the consumer industry since this year, the growth rate of social zero in September / October continued to improve month on month, and the consumer confidence index is still at a high level: 1) the total amount of social zero in October achieved a year-on-year increase of 4.9%; 2) In October, consumer confidence was 120.2, which remained at a high level, indicating that people are still optimistic about future consumption. With the continuous growth of people's disposable income and the high level of consumer confidence, consumption upgrading is the general trend in the long run.
Under the general trend of consumption upgrading, focus on investment opportunities in various sub industries of consumption:
1) E-cigarette: the regulatory system is gradually improved, and the share of manufacturing leaders is expected to be stable. On December 2, the state tobacco monopoly administration announced the measures for the administration of e-cigarettes (Draft for comments), which gives e-cigarettes legal status and benefits the development of the industry. The production side adopts an access system, and the production or OEM needs the approval of the tobacco competent department. In the future, the leader of the production side is expected to be strong and strong.
2) Hotel: Hotel branding is the general trend. With the continuous growth of the hotel group, its brand power and diversion capacity will continue to improve. The hotel has good growth, and the value of leading enterprises continues to increase during the epidemic.
3) Tax exemption: the tax-free industry has benefited from the return of overseas consumption ten times the scale of China. The ceiling of the industry is very high and the supply is in short supply. China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) is the absolute leader of the industry and lays the foundation for the strength to be strong. Benefiting from the expansion of the industry, the rapid release of the supply side in the future will bring deterministic high performance growth.
4) Human resources: long term factors such as the aggravation of talent supply shortage and the upgrading of industrial structure drive the continuous and rapid expansion of the human services industry. Among the sub industries, the flexible employment industry has large space and excellent competition pattern, and the business is in short supply; Compared with overseas, the penetration rate has more than 10 times room for improvement, and China is expected to cultivate a 100 billion level human resources leader. Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) as the leader of flexible employment, the moat will continue to be deeply dug. Thanks to the continuous growth of great health and high-tech jobs, the flexible work business is expected to achieve high growth in the future.
5) Medical Beauty & Cosmetics: at present, China's medical beauty industry is in a high business cycle driven by penetration improvement. It is suggested to pay attention to the comprehensive medical beauty leader with first mover advantage. In terms of cosmetics, the penetration rate of Dermatology grade skin care products continues to increase. The leading brands have established a strong consumer mind. In the future, the main brands will have good growth and there is large room for other brands to expand. Efficacy skin care products continue to squeeze the share of traditional skin care products, and enterprises with strong product strength have a good development prospect.
6) Catering & Tourism: the epidemic has an impact on offline traffic, focusing on catering and new tea enterprises with excellent single store model, short investment payback period and convenient to carry out takeout business. In terms of tourism, it is suggested to pay attention to the leader of Chinese cultural tourism with strong profitability and strong reproducibility.
7) Gold jewelry & Cultivating diamonds: the jewelry market is strongly related to the wedding demand. After long-term historical and cultural precipitation, its value symbols have been widely recognized, high switching cost, high market stability and long-term foundation. From the perspective of growth, the jewelry market is closely related to the promotion of purchasing power. At present, the per capita jewelry consumption in Chinese mainland still has much room for upgrading overseas, and the product innovation, demand scenario expansion and customer unit price increase are also being boosted. In the future, the head trend is obvious. The Chinese market has completed the blank market occupation stage of the first stage, and the channel expansion has entered the second half, but the offline channel expansion is still the most important strategy at present. Based on the feedback of channel first mover advantage and brand advantage on channel expansion, the company has formed channel barriers and brand strength, and has the potential to become a leader with brand premium strength. The cultivation of diamonds has sprung up, and the supply is in short supply. It is in the golden development period. China almost monopolizes the global HPHT production capacity. Upstream enterprises and production equipment suppliers with core technology production strength have direct benefits.
8) Testing industry: large market scale and good competition pattern. The industry is gradually changing from "horse racing enclosure" to "fine operation", and is optimistic about leading enterprises with high operation efficiency and many equipment and talents.
9) Gambling industry: waiting for the implementation of policies, we are optimistic about leading enterprises with strong shareholder background and strong comprehensive operation ability.
10) Cross border e-commerce: the industry boom is high, the penetration rate of e-commerce in major export destinations is increasing, and the epidemic situation promotes the formation of online consumption habits. With favorable policies and catalysis, the "14th five year plan" for e-commerce development was implemented, clearly supporting the high-level development of cross-border e-commerce, and accelerating the cultivation of a number of leading enterprises and industrial clusters. Standardization has accelerated. In the long run, the head selling competitiveness with brand, scale and R & D advantages has gradually become prominent.
11) Mother and baby: the mother and baby channel has differentiated value. With the implementation of the new national standard, it is expected to bring the end increment of milk powder products. Looking at the general trend of mother infant chain in the long term, we are optimistic about the mother infant chain leader with strong service ability and strong user stickiness.
12) Supermarkets and department stores: with the recession of the epidemic in China, the release of consumer demand is accelerated, and the offline channels continue to recover. They are optimistic about the offline channel value of the leading supermarket and department stores for a long time.
Focus on recommending individual stocks in the sector: consumption upgrading improves the prosperity of the industry, and multi track configuration is recommended.
1) E-cigarettes: smore International (6969. HK), Warburg International (0336. HK), China Tobacco Hong Kong (6055. HK), China Bolton (3318. HK), Huabao Flavours & Fragrances Co.Ltd(300741) (300741. SZ), Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) (002191. SZ), Mys Group Co.Ltd(002303) (002303. SZ), Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) (603429. SH), Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.Ltd(603020) (603020. SH), Shantou Dongfeng Printing Co.Ltd(601515) (601515. SH).
2) Hotels: Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) (600258. SH), Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) (600754. SH), Huazhu group (1179. HK), Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) (301073. SZ), Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) (601007. SH), Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) (000524. SZ).
3) Medical Beauty & Cosmetics: Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) (300896. SZ of 300896. SZ), { Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957. SZ), {{ Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) (688363. 63. SH), {{ Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) (300896. SZ), {{ Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957. SZ), {{{ Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) (300896. SZ), {{{300957 7} (30095957. SZ), {{{30095959595957 7 7 7} (300959595957. SZ), {{{688363636363} (6883636363 63. 63. SH), 603605605605605605605605605605605 (603605605605605605605605605605605605. SH), {{{{{{{ Lancy Co.Ltd(002612) (002612. SZ) Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) (688366. SH), Shanghai Lily&Beauty Cosmetics Co.Ltd(605136) (605136. SH), Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) (300856. SZ), Fujian Green Pine Co.Ltd(300132) (300132. SZ), Jahen Household Products Co.Ltd(300955) (300955. SZ), medical thinking health (2138. HK), Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) (688089. SH).
4) Tax exemption: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (601888. SH), Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) (600859. SH), Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) (000524. SZ), Wuhan Department Store Group Co.Ltd(000501) (000501. SZ), Dashang Co.Ltd(600694) (600694. SH), Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) (600827. SH).
5) Human resources: Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) (300662. SZ), Renrui talent (6919. HK), Wanbao Shenghua (2180. HK), foreign service holding (600662. SH).
6) Catering & Tourism: Haidilao (6862. HK), jiumaojiu (9922. HK), naixuedi tea (2150. HK), Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) (300144. SZ), Tibet Tourism Co.Ltd(600749) (600749. SH) Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) (600054. SH), China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) (600138), Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited(000978) (000978. SZ), Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) (002717. SZ), China Quanjude(Group) Co.Ltd(002186) (002186. SZ), Emei Shan Tourism Company Limited(000888) (000888. SZ), Yunnan Tourism Co.Ltd(002059) (002059. SZ), Lijiang Yulong Tourism Co.Ltd(002033) (002033. SZ), Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) (605108. SH), Wuhan Sante Cableway Group Co.Ltd(002159) (002159. SZ), Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) (000796. SZ), Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) (002707. SZ), Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) (603136. SH), Cafe de Coral group (0341. HK), Tongcheng Yilong (0780. HK), Haichang Ocean Park (2255. HK).
7) Gold jewelry & Nurturing diamonds: Jewelry: Chow Tai Fook (1929. HK), Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) (002867. SZ), Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) (600612. SH), Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) (002345. SZ), Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) (600655. SH), China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) (600916. SH), North Industries Group Red Arrow Co.Ltd(000519) (000519. SZ), Henan Huanghe Whirlwind Co.Ltd(600172) (600172. SH), Henan Liliang Diamond Co.Ltd(301071) (301071. SZ), Sinomach Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002046) (002046. SZ), Chow Sang Seng (0116), Liufu group (0590) Beijing Caishikou Department Store Co.Ltd(605599) （605599）、 Mclon Jewellery Co.Ltd(300945) （300945）。
8) Detection: Guangzhou Grg Metrology&Test Co.Ltd(002967) (002967. SZ), China Building Material Test & Certification Group Co.Ltd(603060) (603060. SH), Suzhou Sushi Testing Group Co.Ltd(300416) (300416. SZ), Pony Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300887) (300887. SZ), Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) (300012. SZ).
9) Gambling: Galaxy Entertainment (0027. HK), SJM Holdings (00880hk), sands China Limited (1928. HK), Jinjie Holdings (3918. HK), MGM China (2282. HK).
10) Cross border e-commerce: Anker Innovations Technology Co.Ltd(300866) (300866), Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co.Ltd(600415) (600415), Xiamen Jihong Technology Co.Ltd(002803) (002803).
11) Mother and baby: Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.Ltd(603214) (603214. SH), Kidswant Children Products Co.Ltd(301078) (301078. SZ).
12) Supermarket department stores: Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) (600859. SH), Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) (600821. SH), Wuhan Department Store Group Co.Ltd(000501) (000501. SZ), Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) (002419. SZ), Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) (601933. SH), Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) (603708. SH), Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) (002697. SZ), Better Life Commercial Chain Share Co.Ltd(002251) (002251. SZ), Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) (600827. SH), Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) (600729. SH).
Risk tips: 1) repeated epidemic situation; 2) Traffic costs are rising; 3) Policy supervision has been greatly improved; 4) Weak consumption at the macro level; 5) Competitors continue to enter and increase competition; 6) Foreign companies in China are not fully comparable, and the relevant materials and data of benchmarking are only for reference; 7) Focus on the uncertainty of the company's future performance.
