On December 27, the national financial work conference was held in Beijing to deploy the financial work in 2022. We mainly understand the context of financial operation in 2022 from four perspectives.
Fiscal tightening direction
The financial work conference set the tone of “focusing on stabilizing the macro-economic market” and “accurately grasp the requirements of stability and seeking progress in stability, and actively launch policies conducive to economic stability”. The description of fiscal underpinning economy next year has increased significantly, indicating that the policy level intends to stabilize the economy with fiscal easing in 2022.
Looking back on 2021, this year’s finance is tight; Looking forward to 2022, the fiscal probability is wide.
Fiscal easing orientation
The meeting stressed that “social policies should hold the bottom line of people’s livelihood” and “continue to do a good job in the work of” six stabilities “and” six guarantees “and continuously improve people’s livelihood”, indicating that the field of people’s livelihood is still a key area of fiscal easing.
On the other hand, the meeting revealed that the finance paid more attention to the direction of investment expenditure in 2022 and put forward higher requirements for the efficiency of investment expenditure. The finance did not pay attention to the expansion of investment scale.
In addition, the three key points of stock resolution, incremental containment, responsibility backtracking and implicit debt regulation were not relaxed at this meeting. It is expected that the policy tone of strict control of implicit debt in Document No. 15 will continue until 2022, and it is difficult to significantly expand the scale of implicit debt next year.
Fiscal easing
We believe that there are three ways to make efforts in the field of people’s livelihood in 2022. First, supporting the recent monetary policy, stabilize the market players by reducing taxes and fees and increasing the rescue expenditure for small and medium-sized enterprises, and achieve “ensuring residents’ employment” by “ensuring the market players”. Second, we will strengthen transfer payments and promote the direct fund mechanism to ensure that grass-roots governments “ensure wages”, “ensure operation and transfer” and “ensure basic people’s livelihood”. Third, increase investment in affordable housing projects on the expenditure side.
Investment direction worthy of special attention in infrastructure construction in 2022. Clean energy power generation projects under the dual carbon route, inter city railway, urban rail transit, cold chain logistics projects in the field of transportation, water conservancy construction investment in water conservancy and public facilities management, municipal facilities, environmental health and city appearance management under the urban renewal policy are all key investment areas worthy of attention.
Fiscal easing rhythm
The meeting made it clear that in 2022, “the policy force should be properly advanced”, “ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure and speed up the progress of expenditure”, and the fiscal force can be expected to be advanced in 2022.
In terms of financial support, there can be two important sources of funds before the pace of fiscal expenditure in 2022. One part is the 1.4 trillion special bond funds and supporting projects issued this year but carried forward to next year. These projects will quickly form a physical workload at the beginning of next year. The other part is that the 1.46 trillion special debt limit has been issued in advance at this stage, which corresponds to the sufficient preparation for the project in the early stage, and can also quickly form the actual investment at the beginning of next year.
Risk tips:
The epidemic development exceeded expectations; The downward pressure on the economy exceeded expectations.
