Last week (2.28-3.4), the stock index opened low, the Shanghai index fell 0.11% to close at 3447.6 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.93% to close at 1302046 points, the small and medium-sized 100 fell 3.52%, and the gem index fell 3.75%; In terms of industry sectors, transportation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and comprehensive growth ranked first; In terms of theme concepts, the China Japan ROK free trade zone index, the board index and the board index ranked first in terms of growth; The average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 966531 billion, with a decrease of 8.84% over the previous week, including a decrease of 3.67% in Shanghai and 12.39% in Shenzhen; In terms of style, small and medium-sized stocks have a comparative advantage, of which Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 fell 0.43% and China Stock Exchange 500 fell 0.23%; In terms of exchange rate, the closing point of US dollar against RMB (CFETS) was 6.3189, up 0.07%; In terms of commodities, icewti crude oil rose 25.58%, Comex gold rose 4.62%, Nanhua iron ore index rose 17.19% and DCE coking coal rose 10.97%.
The GDP growth target is higher than expected, and steady growth may continue. From March 4 to March 5, the two sessions of the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress were officially held. The 2022 government work report put forward that the main expected goals of development in 2022 are: China's GDP growth of about 5.5%; More than 11 million new jobs were created in cities and towns, and the urban survey unemployment rate was controlled within 5.5% throughout the year; Consumer prices rose by about 3%; The growth of residents' income basically kept pace with economic growth. We believe that the GDP growth target of 5.5% exceeds the market expectation (about 5%), indicating that steady growth is still the key direction of current policies. Under the impact of the three-year epidemic, China's small, medium-sized and micro enterprises have obvious difficulties in survival, the pressure to stabilize employment has increased, the economic growth target is inclined from structural adjustment to steady growth in the short term, and the follow-up monetary policy, infrastructure and real estate are likely to be stronger than expected. The deficit ratio in 2022 is planned to be about 2.8%, which is lower than the deficit ratio of 3.2% last year. The target of new local government special bonds in 2022 is 3.65 trillion yuan, which is the same as last year's target.
The index center or concussion moves upward. However, the current market still faces four upward obstacles: (1) the Federal Reserve has a high probability of raising interest rates for the first time in March. At present, the event of raising interest rates is pending; (2) With the increasing downward pressure on the economy, A-Shares will face the performance test of the annual report and the first quarterly report from March to April; (3) Russia and Ukraine have gone to war, and the political situation is stuck, involving multiple interests and different demands of all parties. The war between Russia and Ukraine may trigger reflexive effects in global politics and capital markets, such as the escalation of the scale of the war, the escalation of sanctions and the shock of the financial market, so as to further suppress the market's willingness to do more; (4) Previously, the market retreated greatly, it will take time for the market sentiment to repair and new funds to continue to enter, so the reversal is difficult to be achieved overnight. The above four factors curb the market trend rebound from the aspects of valuation, performance, risk appetite and capital. Therefore, we expect that in the next 1-2 months, the A-share market may continue to maintain the shock trend, but the shock center of the market index will rise further. It is expected that the gem index will fluctuate repeatedly at 27 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) points. The period from March to April will be an important observation window for the A-share market. The above four negative factors will probably subside or ease significantly. At that time, the A-share market may usher in a trend reversal, especially the gem index and track sector that have retreated sharply before.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, the market environment is more complex, and investors should look for deterministic investment opportunities from uncertainty. In 2022, the A-share market is optimistic about the following four sectors in turn (in order): (1) dilemma reversal sector: epidemic reversal sector (aviation / Airport / hotel / Tourism / Cinema) The consumption sector with reversed cost dilemma (household appliances, food and beverage), and the pig breeding sector with reversed industrial cycle; (2) A sector with booming production and marketing. In the next 1-3 quarters, the performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation, communication and computer; (3) New energy and other track stocks. It is expected that the differentiation of new energy track stocks will intensify, the stocks with proven performance will still grow high, and the stocks with false performance will be corrected; (4) Downstream consumption sector. In November, China's PPI rose 12.9% year-on-year and CPI rose 2.3% year-on-year. The scissors gap is at an all-time high. It is expected that the convergence period of this round of ppi-cpi will continue from November 2021 to August 2022. The consumer sector will probably achieve excess returns in the first half of next year. We can pay attention to food, beverage and household appliances.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn, recurrence of the epidemic, fluctuations in overseas markets, deterioration of China US relations and risks in emerging market countries.
