Key investment points:
Key points of the government work report of the two sessions
On March 5, 2022, the National People’s Congress was held. Premier Li Keqiang made a government work report. We believe that there are the following points:
\u3000\u30001. Strive to stabilize the macro-economic market. The GDP target for 2022 is set at about 5.5%, which is at the upper limit of the 5-5.5% range generally expected by the market. The report puts forward that “hard work is needed to achieve it”. It is expected that the policy environment may be positive to help the economy achieve steady growth.
\u3000\u30002. Active fiscal policy: the reduction of deficit ratio does not change the active fiscal policy. Although the deficit ratio has been lowered to about 2.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from last year, the scale of fiscal expenditure has expanded by more than 2 trillion yuan compared with last year. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of public fiscal expenditure will rise from 0.3% in 2021 to 8.1%. The actual scale of special bonds is higher than last year. The scale of new special bonds this year is 3.65 trillion yuan, which is the same as that of last year, but the 1.2 trillion special bonds issued in the fourth quarter of last year have been implemented to form a physical workload this year. With the addition of the 1.46 trillion new special bonds arranged in advance at the beginning of this year, the scale of issuance from January to February has exceeded 70%. The active fiscal policy may promote a significant recovery in the growth rate of infrastructure investment, Become an important starting point for steady growth. Tax and fee reductions have been significantly strengthened. It is estimated that the annual tax rebate and tax reduction is about 2.5 trillion yuan, and 1.5 trillion yuan is reserved for tax rebate, which will effectively improve the liquidity pressure of enterprises, especially manufacturing enterprises.
\u3000\u30003. The monetary policy is stable and loose. For the first time, the government proposed to “expand the scale of new loans” in the government work report, and paid more attention to credit relief. We believe that under the premise of relatively stable macro leverage ratio this year, there may be some room for improvement, and the growth rate of social finance may rise.
\u3000\u30004. Expanding domestic demand: infrastructure investment will play an important role. An important starting point for steady growth may be infrastructure investment, in which new and old infrastructure will pay equal attention. In the government work report, it is proposed to “moderately advance infrastructure investment”, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first quarter may pick up significantly, helping the economy get off to a good start. Promote the sustained recovery of consumption. It is mainly focused on promoting the consumption of new energy vehicles, green household appliances to the countryside, elderly care and child care and other people’s livelihood related consumption, and the driving of related industries is still worth looking forward to.
\u3000\u30005. Industrial policy: the target of energy consumption intensity in terms of double carbon is flexible. The energy consumption intensity target will be comprehensively assessed during the 14th Five Year Plan period. It is expected that the phenomenon of annual sports carbon reduction will not appear, and the supply of some high energy consuming products with actual demand may be slightly relaxed. Photovoltaic, wind power and other new energy sources are still the direction of vigorous development. In terms of policy, while maintaining the stability of energy supply, we should promote the construction of renewable energy, reflecting the principle of “building first and then breaking”. Scientific and technological innovation enhances the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry. The upgrading of traditional industries and emerging industrial clusters, with “specialized and special new” enterprises, have become an important starting point for core technology breakthroughs. It is expected that manufacturing investment will maintain a relatively stable growth rate this year, and the high-tech manufacturing industry represented by integrated circuits, new energy vehicles and high-end equipment manufacturing may maintain high-speed growth. Digital economy enables economic development. It is expected that with the increasing importance of digital economy, it will drive the accelerated development of related industries.
\u3000\u30006. Orderly relaxation under the premise of “housing without speculation”. Compared with last year, the newly added houses meet the reasonable demand for house purchase and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of real estate. Since the beginning of the year, the real estate policy has been gradually relaxed. Recently, the housing loan interest rate in Guangzhou has been lowered, and the purchase and loan restriction policies in Zhengzhou have been relaxed, because the urban implementation policies are gradually being fulfilled. In addition, the pull of promoting affordable housing construction on real estate investment may be between 1-2%. It is expected that with the marginal relaxation of the policy, real estate sales and investment are expected to gradually stabilize in the second half of the year.
\u3000\u30007. Asset performance. The probability that the stock market will perform well after the two sessions is relatively large. The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds is usually at the time of the two sessions and one week after the two sessions, and the downward probability is relatively large.
Xi Jinping : realize the self-reliance and self-improvement of seed industry in science and technology and the independent control of seed sources
On the afternoon of Xi Jinping March 6, President of the people’s Republic of China visited members of the agricultural sector, social welfare and social security sectors who participated in the fifth session of the 13th CPPCC National Committee and attended a joint group meeting to listen to opinions and suggestions. He stressed that to implement the strategy of rural revitalization, we must take ensuring important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) especially food supply as the primary task, put improving the comprehensive agricultural production capacity in a more prominent position, and truly implement the principle of “storing grain in the land and technology”. The safety of seed sources is related to national security. We must be determined to develop China’s seed industry and realize the self-reliance and self-improvement of seed industry science and technology and the independent control of seed sources.
Combined with previous central economic work conference, it was proposed to protect the supply of primary products. This year’s No. 1 central document has placed a good job in food production and important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply, and has been a boost to the relevant sectors such as food security and seed industry revitalization.
The situation in Russia and Ukraine: Putin said that Russia is ready to resolve the conflict through dialogue with Ukraine and foreign partners. According to the news of China Central Television, on March 6 local time, the Kremlin announced that Russian President Putin held telephone talks with Turkish President Erdogan on the same day. During the talks, Putin pointed out that Russia is ready to resolve the conflict through dialogue with Ukraine and foreign partners. Any attempt by Ukraine to delay the negotiation process is futile. Erdogan said during the talks that Turkey is ready to promote a peaceful solution to the Ukrainian issue as soon as possible.
Earlier, Ukrainian defense minister reznikov said through social media on the 6th local time that the Ukrainian economy had turned into a wartime state, various factories remained in operation and completed military orders. On the 6th local time, Israeli Prime Minister Bennett chaired the weekly ministerial meeting of the Israeli government. He briefed on his “whirlwind” visit to Russia and Germany the day before, and said that even if the probability of success in mediating the Russian Ukrainian conflict was small, he would still try his best to continue to promote the mediation.
According to the latest news from Russian satellite news agency and Tass News Agency on the 6th, Ibrahim Kalin, spokesman of the Turkish president, said that during a telephone conversation with Turkish President Erdogan, Ukrainian President zelenski said that he was ready to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Istanbul or Ankara. The financing balance decreased. On March 3, the balance of A-share financing was 1633442 million yuan, a month on month decrease of 1.171 billion yuan; The balance of margin trading was 173262 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.419 billion yuan month on month. The balance of financing minus securities lending was 1536621 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 924 million yuan.
Net inflow of land stock connect and Hong Kong stock connect. On March 4, the net purchase transaction of land stock connect on that day was 457 million yuan, including 50.737 billion yuan of purchase transaction and 50.279 billion yuan of sales transaction, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of 165756 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock connect had a net purchase transaction of HK $4.303 billion on that day, including a purchase transaction of HK $20.582 billion and a sale transaction of HK $16.279 billion, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of HK $2242082 billion. Money market interest rates rose. On March 4, Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) inter-bank offered rate Shibor overnight interest rate was 1.9020%, up 17.30bp, Shibor one week was 2.0480%, up 4.30bp. The weighted interest rate of pledged repo of deposit institutions was 1.8925% overnight, up 15.51bp and 2.0351% a week, up 6.13bp. The 10-year maturity yield of China national debt was 2.8125%, down 1.75bp.
European and American stock markets fell. On March 4, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 3361480 points, down 0.53%; The S & P 500 index closed at 432887 points, down 0.79%; The NASDAQ index closed at 1331344 points, down 1.66%. European stock markets, French CAC index closed at 606166 points, down 4.97%; Germany’s DAX index closed at 1309454 points, down 4.41%; The FTSE 100 index closed at 698714 points, down 3.48%. In the Asia Pacific market, the Nikkei index closed at 2598547 points, down 2.23%; The Hang Seng Index closed at 2190529, down 2.50%.
