Macro: internationally, the situation between Russia and Ukraine is deadlocked, and the international oil price has soared, creating inflationary pressure on other countries. Safe haven capital poured into China and the United States from Europe, 10Y US bonds fell, the interest rate spread between China and the United States widened to 107bp, and the US dollar and RMB appreciated. At the Chinese level, the margin of high-frequency fundamental data fell; The government work report points out that in 2022, the situation judgment tends to be severe and the risks and challenges increase; The macro tone is “seeking progress in stability and stabilizing the macro-economic market”; The main economic targets basically continued from the previous year, and the GDP growth rate is set at 5.5%, which is a medium high growth rate. Considering the current complex macro background, the strength of monetary, fiscal and other steady growth policies may be strengthened. At present, the overall macro fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the monetary and credit data are basically consistent with the previous value, and the credit structure may be improved; According to the government work report, the structural credit easing may be strengthened, and the entity financing interest rate may be moved down. Therefore, LPR may still be reduced. Combined with the rhythm of the Fed’s interest rate increase, China may enter the window period of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates again in mid March.
Stocks: most of the world’s major indexes fell last week. Affected by the escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the European market fell sharply. The Chinese market fell across the board. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, China Stock Exchange 500 and other indexes were relatively resistant to decline, while the gem, science and innovation board and other indexes fell significantly. The average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 966.5 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 14.1%. Last week, 18 industries rose and 12 industries fell; Coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, transportation, etc. led the increase; Automobiles, electronics and household appliances led the decline. The rebound of PMI shows that China’s economy has recovered. The two sessions have set various goals for 2022, and steady growth is an important topic. The war between Russia and Ukraine escalated and the global market was turbulent. The Chinese market may have a new direction. The spillover effect of the Russian Ukrainian war may push up the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price, and the impact of the epidemic in Hong Kong may reach its peak. The two sessions proposed to establish a financial stability fund and implement a comprehensive registration system. It is suggested to maintain 60% of the positions, and pay attention to agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, consumer services, non banking, etc. in the short term.
Bonds: the bond market was significantly adjusted last week, and wide credit and steady growth are still the main line. Treasury bonds continued to rebound slightly on Monday, and the official and Caixin PMI both exceeded expectations on Tuesday, promoting a new round of sharp adjustment in the market; The market fluctuated widely on Wednesday; On Thursday, market sentiment worsened and funds and financial management were partially redeemed; The market rebounded on Friday, and the expectation of interest rate and reserve requirement reduction was strengthened. The adjustment of the bond market may have entered the second half. It is expected that it will still be suppressed by the measures of wide credit and stable growth and data release. The trend is empty, but the adjustment rate slows down. The decline rate in the early stage is fast, and the market has staged a slight rebound in demand, which may start the game by strengthening the broad currency expectation. We believe that in order to supplement long-term liquidity and ensure the continuation of credit easing in the second quarter, the possibility of targeted RRR reduction by the central bank this month is considerable, but the impact on the market is expected to be only a short-term emotional disturbance; The possibility of cutting interest rates may be relatively small. This week focuses on the performance of financial data and economic data, as well as whether the central bank announced targeted RRR reduction.
Asset allocation: stocks 25%, bonds 25%, commodities 25%, REITs 25%.
Risk warning: policy and economic data prediction are not as expected, and unexpected risk events, etc; The large asset allocation simulation portfolio is only used for back testing, and the past rate of return does not represent the future situation.
