Key investment points:
Introduction: the two sessions set a tone of 5.5%, and the expectation of steady growth is enhanced. China's economy is located in the transitional stage of reverse cycle regulation in stage 1 of the Pringle cycle and recovery in stage 2. It is stable first and then formed. Sanctions against Russia continued to fall, grasping the two clues of Russia Ukraine event catalysis and long-term domestic substitution.
The two sessions set a tone of 5.5%, and the expectation of steady growth is enhanced. The economic growth rate of the two sessions was set at 5.5%, clearly releasing the signal of "steady growth" and the direction of steady growth: (1) monetary policy: give play to the dual functions of the aggregate and structure of monetary policy tools to provide stronger support for the real economy; (2) Fiscal policy: improve the efficiency of active fiscal policy; (3) Investment: new and old infrastructure development, real estate "stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations", and enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry; (4) Environmental protection: the dual control target of energy consumption has slowed down, and the constraints on economic growth have been reduced. In February, PMI data rose seasonally, exceeding market expectations, mainly driven by the resilience of exports in the short term and the recovery of infrastructure. However, there are still hidden worries in China's economic structure, such as: the effect of steady growth of real estate is not obvious, the operation of small enterprises is difficult, the epidemic restricts the recovery of service industry, the rise of raw material prices, etc, The economic growth rate of 5.5% set by the two sessions means that the strength of China's steady growth policy will be further strengthened, the economic momentum will gradually pick up, and the stable and good situation of PMI will continue. China's economy is located in the transitional stage of counter cyclical regulation in phase 1 and recovery in phase 2 of the Pringle cycle, which is stable before success. In the short term, the risk appetite of A-Shares is suppressed by the disturbance of Russia and Ukraine, and the high dividend strategy is the shield. However, the geopolitical conflict has little impact on China's economy. The continuous promotion of the steady growth policy is expected to improve the expectations of market elements. After the risk appetite is repaired, A-Shares are expected to return to the upward trend, grow in small cap and specialize in special new attacks.
The US non farm data in February far exceeded market expectations, and it is expected to raise interest rates by 25 BP in March. In February, the non-agricultural employment population in the United States increased by 678000 (the previous value was 481000 and the expected value was 423000), significantly exceeding market expectations and the largest increase since July 21; In February, the unemployment rate continued to fall to 3.8%, a new low after the epidemic. On Wednesday, March 2, Powell attended the hearing of the Financial Services Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives. At the meeting, Powell said that the short-term impact of the Russian Ukrainian war and sanctions on the U.S. economy is still very uncertain, but it is appropriate to raise the interest rate by 25 BP in March, and the interest rate increase will be reduced mainly in a passive form. Judging from Powell's speech and February's non farm data, the 25 BP interest rate hike in March is almost certain. From the perspective of implied policy interest rate, the market believes that the probability of 25 BP interest rate hike in March is as high as 92%.
Northward capital fluctuated at a high level, the financing balance continued to pick up, and the overall capital inflow bucked the market. This week, there was a slight net outflow of 4.274 billion yuan from the north, which has remained high and volatile since the beginning of the year; The financing balance rebounded to 1.63 trillion yuan for three consecutive weeks, and the overall net inflow of the two financial institutions this week was 2.6 billion yuan, which continued to pick up. In the context of the slight correction of the market this week, the overall capital inflow is still against the market, showing a certain toughness. After the divergence in the early stage, the two sectors gradually turned to the common capital inflow and outflow of the electronic sector. The overall inflow of non-ferrous metals is still strong, and the inflow of power equipment is stable.
Industry configuration: sanctions against Russia continue to be implemented, and grasp the two clues of Russia Ukraine event catalysis and long-term domestic substitution. a. Russia Ukraine event catalysis industry: 1) oil service and oil transportation; 2) Potash fertilizer; 3) Semiconductor material & power semiconductor; 4) Grain Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ; 5) Bank. b. Independent and controllable long-term track: 1) bulk oil and gas, minerals and grain Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ; 2) Semiconductor equipment; 3) Defense industry. c. Growth track of energy revolution: 1) wind power & photovoltaic; 2) New energy vehicles & parts; 3) Prefabricated buildings.
The annual main line is specialized and new. In terms of the original four-dimensional screening criteria of "specialized", "refined", "special" and "new", we have added the new criteria that only listed companies are small giant enterprises, further focus on the market value of small and medium-sized enterprises, and build a "specialized, special and new" small giant 50. We combed Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi'An(300487) , Amoy Diagnostics Co.Ltd(300685) , Shanghai Fullhan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300613) , Inventronics (Hangzhou) Inc(300582) .
Risk tip: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine exceeded expectations, the persistence of inflation exceeded expectations, the tightening of liquidity exceeded expectations, and the epidemic repeatedly exceeded expectations.
