Macro
The United States added 678000 non farm workers in February, much higher than the expected 400000. The main contributions are leisure and hotel industry, professional and business services, health care industry and construction industry. Looking ahead, in the context of the weakening epidemic, the employment market will maintain a strong recovery. The salary growth rate in February was lower than expected, or due to the acceleration of labor supply, which slowed down the pressure of further upward wages. However, the labor participation rate has been repaired slowly, raising the stickiness of wages. We maintain the view that the Fed’s interest rate hike is ahead of March’s 25bp interest rate hike and the pace of interest rate hike slows down in the second half of the year.
Tactics
The government work report of the two sessions sets the GDP growth target of 5.5% in 2022, which may alleviate the market’s concerns about the economy to a certain extent, and the market may have a stronger performance after the two sessions. The description of the industry and industrial policy direction contains the main line of market investment, of which the two directions of steady growth and consumption are the most noteworthy.
Metalworking
The market adjusted in a narrow range this week, and the cross-sectional volatility decreased significantly. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are at the “safety” level of the valuation quantile. CITIC is in the middle of the “dangerous” rating of consumers in the industries of “electric power, media, commerce and beverage”, as well as in the “dangerous” rating of consumers. From the perspective of capital in the north, the allocation of panjiacang power equipment and new energy, non-ferrous metals, power and utilities, and net sales of non bank finance, food and beverage and building materials; Trading volume increased positions in electronics, non-ferrous metals and real estate, with net sales of cars, computers and food and beverages.
