Key investment points:
Pay attention to the guiding significance of northbound funds for track selection
Combined with the two rounds of resumption from February to December 2018 and February to March 2021, the tracks bought by funds going north during the market correction often achieve excess returns after the market warms up. In other words, the northbound capital has a certain foresight in the choice of the track.
Based on this, we sort out the track of the recent market adjustment of zhongbeishang capital adding positions against the trend, and select the time from January 1 to February 25, 2022. In terms of industry classification, in order to better meet the current investment and research needs, we have reclassified the index of listed companies. Specifically, 69 subdivided industries were selected from the three sectors of technology, consumption and cycle, and 566 companies were selected. According to the track we divided, observe the change of the shareholding amount of northbound capital since 2022.
We define the increase of northbound capital holdings as that the change in the amount of northbound capital holdings is higher than "the rise and fall of the industry + 5%"; The reduction is defined as that the change in the holding amount of northbound capital is less than "the rise and fall of the industry - 5%"; The consistency between the stock price and the trend of northbound capital is defined as the change in the holding amount of northbound capital is between (industry up and down - 5%, industry up and down + 5%).
Positive attention: market adjustment but capital increase in the North
The share price of the consumer sector fell, but the track of northward capital increase is: new retail, games, home, food, beer, dairy products, chemical raw materials and property. The track of northward capital increase beyond the trend is: pig breeding. The share price of the science and technology sector fell, but the tracks for capital increase in the north are: photovoltaic energy storage, IGBT, semiconductor equipment, upstream and downstream of electric vehicles. The share price of the cycle sector fell, but the track of increasing capital holdings in the north is paper products. The track of exceeding the trend of increasing capital holdings in the north is precious metals, industrial metals, rare earth magnetic materials, coal, banking and insurance.
Most tracks: the stock price is consistent with the trend of going north
The tracks where the capital holdings of the consumer sector go north exceed the decline of share prices are: clothing, small household appliances, films, medical devices, innovative drugs and traditional Chinese medicine. The tracks where the reduction of capital holdings in the science and technology sector North exceeds the decline of share price are: photovoltaic equipment, photovoltaic downstream, 5g infrastructure, Internet of things chips, semiconductor materials, Satellite Internet, data center, Xinchuang and Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) . The track where the capital reduction of the cycle sector northward exceeds the decline of the stock price is: construction machinery and prefabricated construction, and the stock price rises, but the track where the capital reduction of the cycle sector northward is: land transportation.
Northbound capital against the trend to increase positions: profit and valuation
The holding amount of northbound capital of other sub tracks is relatively consistent with the stock price trend. Consumer segments: cosmetics, Baijiu, duty-free, kitchen and toilet appliances, white power, hotels, condiments, medicine outsourcing, Chinese medicine and express delivery. Technology sector: Internet of things module, semiconductor sealing and testing, pan simulation, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, national defense equipment, financial it, consumer electronics, Internet of vehicles, wind power and electric vehicle midstream. Cycle sector: real estate, aviation, oil and gas, auto parts, steel, building materials, chemical industry, sanitation and airport.
Risk tip: performance growth is lower than expected; Liquidity tightening exceeded expectations.
