Foreign trade remained resilient, with mixed data. Under the influence of the base, the growth rate of foreign trade slowed down, but the export toughness was strong, slightly higher than expected, and the import was less than expected due to the impact of epidemic situation, geopolitics and other factors. In US dollars, China's total import and export value from January to February 2022 increased by 15.9% over the same period last year, maintaining a high growth rate. Among them, the export growth rate was slightly higher than expected, the overseas epidemic was still not stable, but the demand was strong, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine put pressure on the global supply chain. These factors supported China's exports, and the total export value increased by 16.3% year-on-year; In terms of import, affected by the overseas epidemic, its supply chain and seasonal factors were less than expected, but the price supported it to a certain extent, and the import increased by 15.5% year-on-year. In this year's government work report, it is proposed to expand high-level opening to the outside world and promote the steady development of foreign trade and foreign investment. In addition, the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement will form the world's largest free trade area, which will continue to support China's foreign trade and maintain the resilience of exports.
The EU has returned to its position as the largest trading partner, and RCEP countries have great potential. In terms of trading partners, from January to February, the EU surpassed ASEAN and returned to China's largest trading partner. Under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, European commodities and supply chains were challenged, and exports to the EU increased by 24.2% year-on-year, 7.9 percentage points higher than overall exports; Under the influence of the European epidemic, supply chain problems and other factors, China's imports from the EU decreased by 0.2% year-on-year. The growth rate of China's exports to the United States has slowed significantly compared with that in December last year, and its trade relations with ASEAN have remained stable. China has one belt, one road area, and other trade partners. Trade growth is increasing in all regions except ASEAN. China's trade growth rate in Latin America and Africa is increasing. The cooperation with RCEP countries has been deepened in the import and export cooperation. Under the background of the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine, China's exports and imports to Russia have increased considerably.
The export of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products is still good, and the price factor drives the raw material products. From the perspective of export commodities, continuing the characteristics of last year, the export of high value-added mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products from January to February still maintained a rapid growth rate under the support of policies and driven by overseas demand; The export of labor-intensive products also increased to a certain extent; Driven by price factors, the export amount of steel, unwrought aluminum and aluminum, coal and lignite increased rapidly. The export amount of raw materials in the upstream and midstream increased significantly, but the export volume of some products decreased year-on-year. Under the advocacy of "local Chinese New Year", the progress of industrial resumption has been accelerated to ensure the timely delivery of overseas orders. China's new export order index and import index rebounded in February. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine had a negative impact on the global supply chain and supported China's export. It is expected that the short-term export will remain strong.
Prices have become the main factor supporting imports, and RCEP may be good for future imports. The overseas epidemic affected the import of some products. The import volume of grain was basically the same, and the price increased significantly. The import volume and price of edible vegetable oil decreased at the same time, and the import volume and price of soybeans increased at the same time. Under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine has announced Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) export control, which may have an impact on future grain prices and China's grain imports. Upstream commodity imports are divided, and prices and demand have different effects on different products. From the perspective of main upstream commodities, the import volume of iron ore and its concentrate decreased at parity, the import volume and price of copper ore and its concentrate, unwrought copper and copper products and refined oil increased at the same time, and the import volume of crude oil, natural gas, coal, lignite and steel increased at a reduced price. Affected by the recent geopolitical fluctuations and the continuous rise of crude oil prices, the amount of commodity imports related to crude oil has increased significantly; Affected by overseas supply chain problems, chip shortage, continuous epidemic and geopolitical factors, the import volume of some mechanical and electrical products decreased year-on-year. Geopolitical risks are not eliminated, which is expected to have a negative impact on China's imports, and the base will rise significantly after March. The year-on-year growth of short-term import amount may slow down. In the medium and long term, driven by the repair of supply chain and the growth of China's demand, imports will continue to grow.
Risk tip: the epidemic control is less than expected, the geographical conflict is more than expected, and the recovery is less than expected.
