★ the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated and the shipping market was affected
Sanctions against Russia, Europe and the United States continued to escalate the conflict. Russia is crucial to global economy and trade. With the rising geopolitical risks and the landing of swift sanctions, the rhythm of Global trade may be disrupted, and the shipping market will be affected.
★ risk aversion soars, and the pattern of shipping demand may be disturbed
Panic escalated, and major ship owners and cargo owners increased their avoidance of Russian and Ukrainian goods and avoided docking at relevant ports. Alternative demand may lead to the temporary prosperity of the shipping market and some ship types in other regions, but considering the limited substitutability and the potential impact of the release of regional transport capacity, the market may weaken in the medium term. Russia and Ukraine play an important role in the global energy and food trade market. It is expected that the trade stalemate of grain, oil and natural gas will have a relatively small impact on the situation of container trade and natural gas trade, but it is expected that it will have a relatively small impact on the situation of coal, oil and natural gas trade.
★ if the Russian fleet is sanctioned, the tanker and LNG transportation capacity may be impacted
Ships owned by Russian shipowners account for 7.4%, 3.5%, 0.9%, 0.3% and 0.6% of the global transport capacity of oil tankers, LNG ships, LPG ships, dry bulk carriers and container ships respectively. Once European and American countries begin to impose large-scale sanctions on Russian shipowners, it is expected to lead to the withdrawal of market capacity and form a certain support for the oil transportation market and LNG market, but the impact on dry bulk cargo fleet, container fleet and LPG fleet is estimated to be small.
★ fuel cost increases to support the freight rates of containers and dry bulk cargo
Fuel prices followed the upward trend of oil prices. Fuel costs account for about 1 / 4 of shipping costs. Therefore, the rise in fuel costs will lead to a significant rise in shipping costs, support the freight rate, and have a relatively obvious supporting effect on the container freight rate and the quotation of way charter dry bulk cargo, but have little impact on the time charter market.
