The starting point of “steady growth” during the year: the first half and the second half. At this stage, the economy has entered the second pulse downward period after the epidemic. In the early stage of the epidemic, the first round of economic downturn mainly relied on broad money and the resilience of the economy. In this round, the “stable growth” of investment will play a greater role. It is expected that after the economic growth rate returns to near the potential growth rate, the investment stimulus may decline, and measures such as expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption will be strengthened, It presents the characteristics of first half investment and second half investment + consumption. On the investment side, since the beginning of the year, the performance of the upstream of the manufacturing industry is better than that of the downstream, and the downstream may improve in the short term; Infrastructure investment, new infrastructure, transportation and water conservancy projects in traditional infrastructure, photovoltaic, water storage and energy storage are expected to usher in a period of rapid development. On the consumer side, the consumption formats and habits have changed after the epidemic, the new consumption force is imminent, the Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) consumption integration has deepened in the post epidemic era, and the silver economy will also enter a period of rapid growth.
On policy space and promotion from the “two sessions”: fiscal advance and monetary stability. The “two sessions” set the fiscal tone as “active fiscal policies should improve efficiency, pay more attention to accuracy and sustainability”, and issued a new special bond amount of 3.65 trillion yuan in 2022, with more than 60% of the amount issued and approved in advance in the first two months. In 2022, the fiscal expenditure will increase the central to local transfer payment, focusing on the gradual return to normal, and the fiscal expenditure in agriculture, forestry, water, transportation, energy conservation and environmental protection, urban pipe network and other fields may increase significantly. The setting tone of monetary policy is “prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, and maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity”. The promotion of credit easing is accelerated, and the impact of overseas interest rate hikes on China is relatively limited.
Looking for opportunities in “uncertainty”: industrial opportunities superimposed by cycles. Policy cycle: 2022 will usher in policy changes. From the perspective of historical comparison, the current policy operation of wide finance plus stable currency can be compared with 2011. The policy switching period and the development of machinery manufacturing industry can be expected; Population cycle: China will enter the stage of moderate aging, and the service industry, pension real estate and pension finance industry can be focused on; Opening up after the epidemic: if the epidemic continues, China will still adopt the epidemic prevention policy of “dynamic clearing”, the epidemic treatment and prevention and control will tend to be normalized, and the two major fields of health and digitization will continue to benefit; If the epidemic situation is gradually released after control, the previously impacted downstream consumption is expected to usher in a rebound opportunity.
“War” and “peace”, the recovery of the United States and Europe under geographical conflict. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine stems from historical reasons. The event itself is still uncertain in the short term. The means of international financial sanctions against Russia may have a spillover impact. There are three major risks facing the world: the continuous rise of global inflation, the sweeping wave of austerity and the anti globalization trend after supply chain problems. The economic recovery of the United States may slow down in 2022. The expectation of raising interest rates in March is relatively full, and the range and frequency may be poor. Attention should be paid to the changes of labor structure and financial problems in the medium term; Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the short-term hawks of monetary policy may ease up in Europe.
Risk tip: global inflation exceeds expectations, monetary policy turns to exceed expectations, and geopolitical risks.
