On March 5, the government work report of the two sessions was officially released. We believe that there are the following concerns: first, the annual GDP growth target of 5.5% is relatively optimistic, highlighting the government's confidence in steady growth. This target means that the steady growth policy will have a significant force to pick up the growth rate compared with that in 2021. The government work report also clearly pointed out that the GDP target of 5.5% "reflects the initiative and requires hard work to achieve". 2、 Infrastructure construction is expected to develop in the second quarter of this year, and the tone of fiscal policy is to "improve the efficiency of positive fiscal policy". Although the annual special debt is flat compared with last year, the special debt that has not been fully put into use in the fourth quarter of last year is superimposed with the special debt amount of 1.46 trillion yuan issued in advance this year, combined with the wording of "moderately ahead of infrastructure investment", Infrastructure construction is expected to make significant efforts in the second quarter of this year. 3、 The focus of monetary policy is to dredge transmission channels and expand the scale of new loans. Words such as "strengthening the implementation of prudent monetary policy", "giving full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools" and "expanding the scale of new loans" show that there is still some room for subsequent easing policies, and the subsequent government will continue to encourage the expansion of the scale of new loans.
Be alert to the adjustment pressure of global tightening policies on risky assets. This week will usher in the US February CPI and the European central bank interest rate meeting. At present, the rising inflation in the world is forcing the major central banks to accelerate the pace of tightening. According to the minutes of the European Central Bank meeting, members believe that the main risk at present is too late to tighten monetary policy. On March 2, Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell mentioned "starting to reduce the balance sheet after the first interest rate increase", which does not rule out the possibility of starting to reduce the balance sheet from March to April. In the follow-up, we need to be vigilant against the negative impact of table shrinkage on financial assets. We back test that since 2007, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has a significant correlation with financial assets, with a significant positive correlation with US stocks as high as 0.9, a negative correlation with US bond interest rate as high as -0.849, and a certain positive correlation with 0.68 recorded by Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. In addition, in the shrinking stage from 2017 to 2019, the correlation between the commodity index and the Fed's balance sheet was -0.29, and the higher correlations in the commodity sector were grains (- 0.81), agricultural and sideline products (- 0.68) and soft commodities (0.82).
The current round of the situation in Ukraine and Russia is more severe than we previously estimated. The Ukrainian Russian war has shifted from the previous blitz to a new stage of seesaw war, and Russia's energy and natural gas supply will inevitably be affected. We selected six geopolitical events with great influence in history as samples for analysis. The impact of geopolitical conflict on financial assets shows the law of first falling and then rising. In the brewing stage before the event landing (the first month), among the six samples, the US dollar index, Shanghai Composite Index and 10Y US bond interest rate have a high probability of falling, the probability of falling is 83.3%, and the probability of safe haven asset gold is 66.6%. After the official landing of the event, the risk assets rebounded and repaired. In the sample, the probability of 83.3% of the NASDAQ index and 66.6% of the Shanghai Composite Index and the US dollar index rose. The commodity sectors except gold did not show obvious laws before and after the event. We believe that the results will change according to the supply and demand structure of the place where the event occurred.
Generally speaking, under the expectation that the two sessions will boost steady growth, China's stock index will still benefit from a cautious view; In the first half of the year, the counter cyclical bottom support policy (stabilizing real estate and strengthening infrastructure) may exert moderate force, which will help the follow-up investment items gradually pick up and improve. The demand for black building materials (steel, glass, double coke and iron ore), traditional non-ferrous metals (aluminum, copper and zinc), domestic demand chemicals and domestic demand energy (power coal) may gradually improve in the second quarter, combined with the continuous tug of war in Ukraine and Russia, We raised our view of the above commodities to bargain hunting.
Strategy:
Commodity Futures: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (soybeans, soybean meal, etc.), industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry, coal), precious metals bargain hunting and long; At the same time, we should guard against the reversal risk of the situation between Ukraine and Russia;
Stock index futures: cautious.
Risk point: geopolitical risk; China curbs commodity overheating; The risk of Sino US game is rising; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; Iran nuclear talks.
