Event: according to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, from January to February 2022, the export was 16.3% year-on-year, the former value was 20.9%, the import was 15.5% year-on-year, the former value was 19.5%, the trade surplus was 116 billion US dollars, the former value was 71.71 billion US dollars, and the same period last year was 97.06 billion US dollars.
Export growth fell, but it is still resilient. Although the year-on-year growth rate of exports decreased compared with that in December last year, it is still high as a whole, reflecting a certain degree of toughness. From the whole year of this year, the probability of gradual decline in export growth is high, but it will maintain a relatively high prosperity in the short term.
There are still reasons for resilience in the short term: 1) the export base was not too high before June, adding that the current commodity price is still high, and the price factor will still be significantly supported. 2) In the first two months, South Korea's exports grew by 17.8% year-on-year, indicating that although the prosperity of foreign demand fell slightly, it is still not weak as a whole.
Reasons for the gradual decline of export growth during the year: 1) the export base will rise significantly in the second half of the year. 2) Globally, the current round of epidemic has gradually improved, overseas restrictions have been gradually liberalized, and the substitution effect of China's exports may be weakened. 3) Overseas consumer demand for goods has gradually shifted to demand for services. 4) The performance of RMB is relatively strong. Even if there is a certain degree of depreciation, we think the space is relatively limited, and the exchange rate will affect exports. 5) Geopolitical factors continue to ferment, and the sharp rise in commodity prices such as crude oil and natural gas leads to the high global inflation, which may affect the recovery of the global economy and lead to some uncertainty in foreign demand.
The global trade boom remained high, and the growth rate of exports to the United States fell. From the perspective of overseas manufacturing PMI, the United States was 57.6% and 58.6% respectively in the first two months of this year, and the eurozone was 58.7% and 58.2% respectively in the first two months of this year, which were at a high level as a whole. From January to February, the growth rate of exports to the United States fell by 7.4 percentage points to 13.8%, the growth rate of exports to the EU fell by 1.5 percentage points to 24.2%, and the growth rate of exports to ASEAN increased by 1.3 percentage points to 13.3%. Among them, the growth rate of exports to ASEAN may benefit from the impact of the entry into force of RCEP.
The export growth rate of steel products and integrated circuits is relatively high. By product, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) year-on-year 21.5%, previous value 17.7%; The year-on-year growth rate of steel was 34.4%, and the former value was 84.9%. Although it fell a lot, it was still significantly higher than the overall export growth rate; Textile yarn was 11.9% year-on-year, with the previous value of 16.21%. The improvement of the global epidemic may lead to a slight decline in demand; Clothing and accessories were 6.1% year-on-year, with the former value of 14.5%; High tech products were 14.7% year-on-year, with the former value of 23.08%; Electromechanical products were 12.5% year-on-year, and the former value was 18.12%. Among them, mechanical and electrical products have been differentiated. Mobile phones and household appliances have decreased from 33.19% and 17.59% to 1.2% and - 3.6% respectively, and integrated circuits have increased from 20.96% to 27.7%.
The import growth rate fell slightly, and the price may have some support. From the perspective of main products, the growth rate of import amount of iron ore and its concentrate has deepened, and the growth rate of import amount of crude oil, unwrought copper and copper materials, integrated circuits and soybeans has also decreased to a certain extent compared with the previous month, but they are still higher than the overall import growth rate; In terms of quantity, the imports of the above products fell year-on-year, including integrated circuits and crude oil, while soybeans, unwrought copper and copper fell to single digits. Only automobile imports performed well, and the amount and quantity changed from negative to positive year-on-year.
On the whole, we maintain the short-term resilience of exports and judge that exports will gradually decline during the year. The supporting role of exports to the economy may be significantly weakened in the second half of the year.
