The impact of the Russian Ukrainian conflict on the world is mainly reflected in three aspects: the first is the impact of inflation and inflation expectations, the second is the impact of global liquidity, and the third is the impact of Global trade and growth.
At present, we are in the first and second stages, and the impact of the Russian Ukrainian conflict on global growth has not yet emerged. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to deepen, we should pay more attention to the global liquidity disturbance and the direction of global economic growth than the inflation that has been fully priced at present.
Before looking ahead to China's monetary policy orientation, let's first look at the impact of the Russian Ukrainian conflict on China's economy.
First, the RMB exchange rate has strengthened under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Second, China's exposure to Russian financial assets is limited.
Third, if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine deepens, it will affect global economic growth and put pressure on China's export momentum.
Weak external demand and stable growth of domestic demand will inevitably raise demands; The RMB exchange rate has risen steadily, which is a very good policy background for expanding domestic demand.
Therefore, we understand that the Russia Ukraine incident will not change the orientation of China's monetary policy. After all, the focus of China's monetary regulation is to deal with China's growth. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is further deepened, China's currency will be easy to loosen but difficult to tighten, and the policy of stabilizing domestic demand will also be strengthened at that time.
Risk warning: the epidemic development exceeded expectations; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine exceeded expectations.
