Key investment points:
Most important market indexes fell last week. Only Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 closed up slightly by 0.35%, Shanghai Composite Index, China Securities 500 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 closed down slightly by 0.39%, 0.49% and 0.67% respectively, while gem index, Kechuang 50 and Beijing stock exchange index fell sharply by 4.00%, 2.88% and 4.19% respectively. In terms of transaction volume, the volume decreased somewhat, but the daily average volume continued to exceed trillion yuan, with a turnover of 5.43 trillion yuan throughout the week, a month on month decrease of 390.7 billion yuan; Among them, the small-scale outflow of funds from Beishang throughout the week was 1.221 billion yuan. In terms of industries, Shenwan level industries rose or fell by half, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage and building materials leading the increase, all exceeding 2.0%; Electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, steel, chemical and other industries fell sharply.
In terms of policy, Premier Li Keqiang held a national regular meeting on the 23rd, focusing on the deployment of “stabilizing foreign trade”. The meeting pointed out that “at present, foreign trade is facing more uncertain, unstable and unbalanced factors”, and it is necessary to “do a good job in cross cycle adjustment, help enterprises rescue, especially support small, medium and micro enterprises, strive to maintain orders and stabilize expectations, and promote the steady development of foreign trade”. At the same time, Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, also pointed out in an interview with the people’s Daily that “we should actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability, make good use of investment policies and consumption policy tools, implement the upcoming strategic outline of expanding domestic demand, and carefully introduce policies with contraction effect”. In addition, the monetary policy committee of the central bank held a regular meeting for the fourth quarter at the weekend, which also pointed out that monetary policy should be “more active and promising, and increase support for the real economy”. Under the background of “triple pressure”, the management is taking multiple measures to stimulate the “troika” to stabilize the macro-economic market. Considering that the market has fully expected the economic downturn next year and the tone of steady growth is frequently emphasized, the pessimistic expectation of the market is expected to be repaired.
Investment strategy: last week, in the process of gradually digesting the negative factors in the overseas market, the market as a whole was in a process of shock, and the gem refers to a sharp correction under the drag of the sharp decline in the new energy sector caused by the less than expected landing time of the US Biden act. In the short term, the decline in the risk of hospitalization of Omicron and the approval of covid-19 oral medicine have eased the pressure of overseas epidemic prevention and control, and the overseas market sentiment has gradually warmed up, which is conducive to the recovery of global risk appetite. In China, considering that this week is not only before the small holiday, the transaction activity tends to decline, but also a special time point with strong capital demand near the end of the year, there is still short-term pressure at the index level this week. However, considering that the “cross year market” in 2022 is expected to become loose in the stable liquidity, the policy tone focuses on “stability” and the performance vacuum period, short-term adverse factors give investors the opportunity to participate in the market at a more reasonable price, and it is suggested that investors bargain hunting layout. In terms of industry configuration, it can be based on the whole year of next year and configured along the two main lines of trend continuation and dilemma reversal. Specifically, Attention should be paid to: (1) the “fengfengchu” sector benefiting from the continuous promotion of the global energy revolution; (2) the strategic position of the science and technology sector is superimposed on the “new infrastructure”, semiconductors, media and other TMT sectors with high safety margin; (3) the consumer sector with continuous digestion of valuation and strong certainty of medium and long-term performance, which is expected to benefit from the continuous inflow of foreign capital next year; (4) The production capacity continues to be cleared, and the breeding plate at the inflection point of the game can be arranged on a bargain hunting basis.
Risk tip: the economic downturn exceeded expectations, and the global epidemic development exceeded expectations.
