Key investment points:
Reviewing the performance of A-Shares at the end of the year and the beginning of the year over the years, if there is no impact of special events, the market will open a “cross year market” under the influence of capital, policies, performance and other factors. In terms of profit-making effect, the market profit-making effect gradually rises after the Spring Festival, and with the accumulation of profit chips, the market risk is also gradually rising. Generally speaking, in the current performance vacuum period, the pessimistic expectations at the performance end are expected to be revised upward under the protection of policies, and the capital risk appetite is expected to remain relatively high. At the same time, the liquidity tends to be loose in stability, and the policy tone is “stable”. The “cross year market” in 2022 is expected to develop, and investors can actively participate. However, in the restless process of the following spring, we need to pay attention to the grasp of the rhythm and be vigilant against the fluctuation risk brought by the periodic exchange of funds.
In terms of style, after the Spring Festival over the years, the market style will generally be dominated by small and medium-sized stocks; In the years with small and medium-sized stocks as the main line before the Spring Festival, the style of small and medium-sized stocks will continue after the Spring Festival. Considering that the current market style is dominated by small and medium-sized stocks, and from the performance side, the performance of small and medium-sized stocks represented by China Securities 500 in the third quarter is superior to that of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. At the same time, on the valuation side, the current valuation level of China Securities 500 is below the average level since 2015, the valuation is not expensive and the performance is acceptable, so the market of small and medium-sized stocks is expected to continue.
In terms of performance, looking back on the performance of various industries in the cross-year market since 2015, the absolute level of performance in the first quarterly report does not necessarily lead to the corresponding performance of the market, that is, the high growth of performance in the first quarterly report does not necessarily lead to the advance rise of the sector, and the low growth of performance does not necessarily suppress the expansion of the market. The reason may be related to market expectations. After comparing the marginal changes of the first quarter net profit growth of various industries compared with the fourth quarter report of last year and the rise and fall of various industries after the Spring Festival, the results show that industries with greater marginal improvement in the first quarter report are more likely to obtain relative income. Considering the traceability of data, we further explored the marginal improvement of the fourth quarter report compared with the third quarter and the performance of various industries in the cross year market. The results show that the five industries after the improvement of the fourth quarter report have outperformed the top five industries in the cross year market since 2016, which means that when the market is exploring the opportunities for the improvement of the performance of the first quarter report, More inclined to tap the industries where the improvement of the four seasons report is not obvious. Therefore, in the cross year market, investors can focus on the industries where the marginal improvement of the quarterly report is at the end, and screen the industries in which the quarterly report is expected to improve.
Industry configuration: Based on the retrospect of the performance of various industries in the past cross year market, industries with greater marginal improvement in the first quarter report are more likely to obtain relative income, and industries with no obvious improvement in the fourth quarter report are more likely to obtain the layout of funds. We compare the analysts’ net profit forecast for the annual report of 2021 with the third quarterly report, focus on the industries with the lowest marginal improvement, and observe the possibility of taking off in the first quarter of 2022 after “squatting” in the fourth quarter of 2021. In the process of cross year market, we can focus on steel, real estate industry chain including building materials and architectural decoration, big finance including banks and securities companies, and consumer sectors including household appliances, medicine and biology, food and beverage and leisure services.
Risk tip: policy risk, black swan event impact, performance is lower than expected.
