Asset overview
The A-share market is weak, the overseas equity market is generally rising, the bond market continues to rise, and the commodity market is strong. In the equity market, A-Shares fell, CSI 300 fell 0.67%, CSI 1000 fell 1.49%, and gem index fell 4%; Overseas equity markets Yanpu rose, the S & P 500 index rose 2.28%, and the UK FTSE 100 rose 1.41%. The bond market rose, with CSI corporate bonds up 0.17%, and CSI treasury bonds unchanged from last week. The commodity market showed strong performance. This week, crude oil rose by 5.16%, aluminum rose by 3.16% and soybeans rose by 4.52%; In terms of correlation, the seesaw effect of stocks and bonds is still strong, and the positive correlation between commodities and equity is at a historical high.
Latest views
In terms of macro influencing factors, the main positive contributions this week come from price and international financial factors; Macro policy, emotion and stock market factors are the main negative contributions, of which emotion and macro policy factors are the main positive contributions last week.
Northbound funds turned into net outflow, and the activity of financing purchase decreased compared with the previous period. The net outflow of funds going north this week was 1.22 billion yuan and the net inflow last week was 11.47 billion yuan. As of December 23, the balance of margin trading and securities lending was 1.84 trillion, a decrease of 363 million yuan over last Friday; The financing purchase amount accounted for 4.54% of the financing balance, which was 35% in the last three months.
By industry, the net inflow scale of power equipment, basic chemical industry and electronics ranks first; The net outflow scale of building materials, banks and food and beverage ranked first, of which building materials changed from positive to negative compared with last week; This week, petroleum and petrochemical, real estate and military industry changed from negative to positive. According to the institutional research data, the industries with high attention in recent four weeks are medicine, basic chemical industry, power equipment, machinery, electronics and so on.
Stock index futures market. On Wednesday, the trading volume of major stock index futures decreased, the positions increased and the basis increased.
The 7-day repo rate in the bond market fell sharply and the credit spread rose. The long-term interest rate fell 3.09bp to 2.82% this week; The short-term interest rate rose 1.77bp to 2.33%. The easing of monetary policy liquidity entered the new normal after the epidemic. The 7-day repo rate fell sharply this week, down 22.32bp to 2.07%, and the rolling 20 day average is at the low level since this year. The interest margin of treasury bonds decreased by 4.86bp, the term interest margin of CDB bonds decreased by 0.5bp, and the credit interest margin of 3M medium and short-term notes – 3M CDB bonds increased by 5.31bp this week.
The commodity market is strong, and industrial products are stronger than Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) . Nanhua commodity index rose 1.89% this week, including industrial products index rose 1.51%, agricultural products index rose 1.29%, rebar rose 0.31% and LME copper rose 1.6%. COMEX gold rose 0.64% this week and NYMEX crude oil rose 5.16% this week.
Risk statement
The epidemic situation worsened beyond expectations, and the quantitative model failed due to drastic changes in the market.
