Part I: Overseas: in 2021, the world experienced the repeated impact of gamma, Delta and Omicron mutant viruses. The normalization of mutant viruses will further delay the global unsealing date. The Central Bank of China has cut the reserve requirement twice. Once, it cut the interest rate on the one-year LPR, showing a dovish loose monetary policy as a whole. The main reason is that China's inflation remains relatively stable. China's CPI in November increased by 2.3% year-on-year, is expected to rise by 2.5%, and the previous value rose by 1.5%, maintaining moderate fluctuations throughout the year. In December 2021, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting said that it would raise interest rates three times in 2022, and the interest rate would rise to the range of 0.75% to 1%. It is estimated that the first interest rate increase will be in June 2022, and the second and third interest rates will be in September and December 2022, with an increase of 25bp each. In the future, with the US interest rate hike starting in 2022q2, China will face three decisions: A: exactly match and follow the United States; B: the trend follows the United States and the range is controllable; C: not follow the United States. Historically, B is the best option. In the future, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds between China and the United States will still show the same trend of rise and fall. With the promotion of the internationalization trend of RMB and the improvement of the speed of global capital flow, rapid and flexible dynamic adjustment based on the monetary interest rate of western central banks dominated by the United States will be the main monetary policy change mechanism of the Central Bank of China.
Part II: China: the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee made it clear that the 20th CPC National Congress will be held in the second half of 2022. The overall tone is that the work next year should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability. It is expected that in 2022, with the global economic recovery, China's real GDP growth will continue to maintain a growth range of 5.4%, and the nominal GDP growth will remain at 7.3% throughout the year, down from the margin in 2021. It is estimated that the growth rate of China's fixed assets in 2022 will be 4.2%, of which the growth rate of manufacturing investment will be 5.5%. Infrastructure investment is 7.4%, and real estate development investment is 5.2%. In terms of import and export, exports grew by 6.1% year-on-year. Imports grew by 4.1% year-on-year. The total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 6.2% year-on-year. It is estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in 2022 will continue to maintain a moderate growth range of less than 2%, while the year-on-year growth rate of PPI will decline seasonally, enter 2022q4 and enter the recession range. China's monetary policy will remain loose, and China's PMI will continue to maintain the expansion range. It is expected that with the expansion of fiscal policy in 2022, the industrial added value will end at the end of the year, with an expected growth of 6.4% for the whole year. The corresponding employment situation continues to improve, and the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 4.8% by the end of 2022. It is expected that in 2022, the liquidity supply and demand of the banking system will continue to maintain a basic balance without major fluctuations. The overall recovery of the real estate industry will be the main line. The Politburo meeting proposed to support reasonable housing demand, which clearly transmitted a positive signal of stabilizing the real estate market. The next round of pig cycle, which is potentially driving upward inflation, needs to wait for the supply and demand inflection point after the year-on-year growth rate of fertile sows enters a negative growth rate.
Part III: Style: the resolution of the 14th five year plan and the outline of long-term objectives in 2035. Focus on major innovative fields such as quantum information, photons and micro nano electronics, network communication, artificial intelligence, biomedicine and modern energy systems. The future high-tech track will also aim at frontier fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum information, integrated circuits, life and health, brain science, biological breeding, aerospace technology, deep earth and deep sea. It is expected that by 2025, an economic system of green and low-carbon circular development will initially take shape, and the energy utilization efficiency of key industries will be greatly improved. The rise of emerging consumption refers to the current rise of new consumption concepts, including consumer electronics, new retail, entertainment consumption, smart residence and life. In the future, China's consumption structure will continue to upgrade and transform, with broad emerging consumption fields and huge potential growth space. From the perspective of expectation, on the whole, the decline of the overall market profit in 2022 is smaller than that of the small and medium-sized market. 2022 will still be the main battlefield leading the gem. However, with strong stability, large cap stocks are expected to regain the main allocation and attention of market funds. From the perspective of month on month changes, the industries that continue to grow month on month in 2022 are still high boom tracks such as new energy index and high-end equipment manufacturing index. Large consumption, new infrastructure and Mao index track maintained strong resilience, with small month on month decline, and maintained a steady profit growth trend. In the future, several main lines of potential excess returns, such as the overall recovery of the real estate industry, the continuous rise of multiple tracks of TMT technology, the upgrading and replacement of national defense and military industrial equipment, the superposition of emerging consumption and the recovery of traditional consumption, will run through the whole year.
Part IV: Investment: focus on six potential excess returns
Semiconductor chip manufacturing track: in 2021, the semiconductor recovery bull climbed to the peak again, and the world's major semiconductor indexes continued to rise. In 2021, the growth rate of global semiconductor IC market reached 24%, significantly exceeding the growth rate of global GDP by 5%, showing a very high prosperity. In the future, the global demand for advanced process chips will be more vigorous. The national large fund continues to invest in the fields of semiconductor chip design, manufacturing, equipment and materials, and continues to be optimistic about the advanced chip manufacturing track.
Consumer electronics technology track: emerging markets such as mobile phones, tablets, PCs, VR and AR devices promote the emergence of consumer electronics track and usher in a new round of industrial growth peak. In 2021, it is estimated that the global revenue in the field of consumer electronics will reach US $415.8 billion. By 2025, the market scale will reach 487.1 billion US dollars. The user penetration rate will reach 25.3% in 2021 and is expected to reach 34.8% by 2025. The average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to be US $218.90, of which China (US $162 billion in 2021) accounts for more than 40%.
New energy vehicle track: 2021 is the year of the outbreak of new energy vehicles. From January to November this year, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles completed 3.023 million and 2.99 million respectively, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 12.7%. China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile ushered in an unstoppable wave of growth. In the context of the deterministic growth of new energy vehicles, high-end auto components and accessories, such as auto chips, auto sensors, auto images and display devices, have ushered in long-term growth opportunities.
Photovoltaic wind power track: carbon peaking and carbon neutralization are China's major strategic goals and will become a guide for China's future energy transformation. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2025, the average annual compound growth rate of the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic in China will be about 18.3%, the average annual new installed capacity will be 67.4gw, and the cumulative installed capacity will reach 589gw by 2025. It is estimated that the average annual compound growth rate of the cumulative installed capacity of wind power from 2021 to 2025 will be about 17.5%, the average annual new installed capacity will be 70gw, and the cumulative installed capacity will reach 630gw by 2025. There will still be huge growth in the upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic wind power industry chain.
Military industry track: the focus of the "14th five year plan" policy on national defense and the army undoubtedly brings strong policy support to the military industry in the medium and long term. Taking the centennial of the founding of the army in 2027 as the node, the investment in the military industry and the procurement of related equipment will reach an unprecedented height, and the prosperity of the industry is expected to maintain a high level in a long cycle. In order to cope with the potential escalation of the military game, the China Military Industry Association has made continuous breakthroughs in several major industrial chains such as satellite navigation technology, naval ships and military aircraft.
Metauniverse track: in October this year, Facebook announced that it was renamed meta, and the concept of metauniverse has become a popular track to detonate the stock market at the end of this year. Metauniverse may change people's future social style and create a new concept of a new model of work and entertainment. Yuanuniverse includes infrastructure construction, hardware equipment, software application and other fields. From basic database construction, to intelligent wearable devices, and then to downstream games and media applications, metauniverse will drive the comprehensive recovery of multiple segments of the industry, such as electronics, computers, communications and media.
