Strategic point of view: the index will go up or wait for the steady growth policy to take effect, and bargain hunting will layout structural opportunities in the shock
1) According to the analysis of the monthly strategy report in November, the index returns to shock and rises slowly, focusing on the structural opportunities of Pan consumption + hard technology, it is pointed out that the marginal stability of economic fundamentals, the pressure on the expected difference of the company’s overall performance is small, the stability of macro policies is loose, and the marginal improvement of external environment. At present, the main indexes and industry valuations are reasonable and safe; The market environment in the above aspects supports the continuous shock and slow rise of the market index. However, considering the slowdown of the economic trend and the time required for the implementation of the steady growth policy, the rising space and sustainability of the index are limited, and the index is still dominated by structural opportunities. In combination with the main variables such as the development of covid-19 epidemic and the change of prevention and control pressure, macro policy expectation and industry prosperity in 22 years, we focus on three main investment lines:
(1) performance improvement category: the middle and lower reaches industries, including “Baijiu” and “product price increase”, include popular food, high-end liquor consumption, and the manufacturing industry of lithium battery and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) components.
(2) Through the cycle category: mainly advanced manufacturing industries with sustained prosperity, including advanced manufacturing industries represented by semiconductor materials and production equipment, power semiconductor chip IGBT, military equipment, electric smart vehicles, carbon neutralization technology, etc;
(3) Bottom (out of difficulty) reversal: industries whose business fundamentals are about to bottom out and improve, mainly including animal husbandry (pig prices have basically bottomed out, and the deregulation of production capacity is about to start), modern seed industry, Airport (the impact of covid-19 epidemic is gradually weakened, and international flights are expected to be gradually opened in the medium term), auto parts (driven by vehicle inventory replenishment), and smart small household appliances (the shortage of chip supply is gradually alleviated), insurance (the pain of agent reform is weakening, the real estate industry is dragging down the bottom, and both ends of assets and liabilities are gradually improved); and the valuation repair market of undervalued blue chips basically established at the end of the policy, mainly based on finance, real estate leaders and real estate industry chains (home decoration building materials and kitchen electricity).
2) In the monthly strategy report of December, the recent new virus harm is to be determined vs. medium-term steady growth overweight and bargain hunting structural opportunities, combined with the uncertainty of the recent harm of overseas mutant strain Omicron, A-share sentiment has been restrained under the intensification of overseas market shocks, but it is expected to be overweight based on the China Cifco Investment Co.Ltd(000996) steady growth policy, It is pointed out that the structural opportunities under the above three main investment lines can be arranged on a bargain hunting basis.
3) In mid December, the central economic work conference released a clear signal: economic construction is the center, the task of stabilizing growth is the first, and policy overweight is the first; We believe that China’s current macro environment is entering the stage of “mid-term economic slowdown and gradual loosening of policies in stability”. Considering that the stable growth policies are expected to be introduced one after another in the near future, the second comprehensive reduction of reserve requirements will be implemented in the year, and the fiscal expenditure will be accelerated, various ministries and commissions will actively introduce policies to stabilize investment, boost industry and promote consumption, which will be implemented steadily, which is expected to boost the market layout and cross-year market, “New infrastructure, new energy, new materials, advanced manufacturing” and other price increases to stabilize the industry, and “extensive consumption in the middle and lower reaches”
