Capital analysis: this week, the central bank invested a net 50 billion yuan in the open market and launched a 14d reverse repurchase. The capital price was stable during the year; The central bank's early incremental investment releases the signal of maintaining stability, but it still needs to be cautious about capital fluctuations during the next year. This week, the central bank conducted a total of 50 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market. This week, the central bank conducted a total of 100 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with a net investment of 50 billion yuan this week. The central bank started the 14d reverse repurchase, the capital price was stable during the year, and the 14d capital price rose accordingly. The central bank put in incremental investment in advance. Although the amount was small, it released a signal of support for capital. However, at present, the market has strong expectations for the central bank's cross-year support. If the central bank's investment is less than expected next week, there is still the possibility of rapid tightening, and we still need to be cautious during the cross-year period.
Interest rate bonds: considering the changing trends of economy, inflation, capital interest rate and US bond interest rate, there may be rebound pressure on the interest rate of long-term bonds next year, but it is also difficult to make a significant adjustment. Next year, with the intensive introduction of policies, it is expected that the economic momentum will be repaired. Although inflation is declining step by step, the average value is higher than that before the epidemic, so it is difficult to fall significantly. The United States is facing comprehensive inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve has entered the channel of debt reduction and interest rate increase, and the US bond interest rate will face upward pressure next year. Under the influence of these bad conditions, the yield of long-term bonds will rebound, the economy is still in the recovery under policy stimulus, and the endogenous economic power may be relatively weak. Therefore, there will be no significant adjustment of bonds.
Convertible bonds: the equity market fluctuated and fell, the convertible bond market fluctuated upward and its anti falling attribute was prominent. It focused on the midstream manufacturing industry with infrastructure, finance, large consumption and reversed performance. This week, the equity market fluctuated and fell, while the convertible bond market fluctuated and rose. Compared with the equity market, the anti falling attribute of the convertible bond market was prominent. More than 60% of the convertible bonds recorded a rising market, and the medium price, medium rating and medium-sized convertible bonds performed better. The overvaluation of convertible bonds may last for a long time. Strategically, it is still recommended to put defense first and pay attention to infrastructure, finance, large consumption, midstream manufacturing with reversed performance, etc.
Equity market: "ningwang" rarely plummeted, and institutional low allotment shares rose in turn. This week, the Shanghai index showed an inverted "n" shape trend, and value stocks strengthened. The Shanghai index closed at 3618.05 points this week, and high track stocks continued to be weak. With the advent of a new era of seed system, pay attention to technology reserves and enrich seed companies; FDA approved Pfizer covid-19 oral drug and suggested to pay attention to cdmo investment opportunities; Weiya event driven live broadcast decentralization, tax-free and brand businesses may benefit; EPA has formulated new greenhouse gas emission standards, benefiting new energy vehicle enterprises. Looking forward to the future, the first quarter and the second quarter of 2022 are the window period for China's steady growth policy. From the perspective of counter cyclical regulation and RMB, the overall opportunities of A-Shares may be mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. At present, there is a stage outperforming basis for the value style of a shares. In terms of strategy, cherish the best window of counter cyclical policy and tap the relevant stocks with continuous outbreak of fundamentals. In terms of industry configuration, under the violent fluctuations in the peripheral market, the mandatory consumption has the advantage of "advancing and retreating". The worry about new virus variants may strengthen the configuration value of the mandatory consumption sector.
