Key investment points:
2022: from recovery to normality; From "performance bull" to "valuation bull".
Global economy: "recovery" is the main tone in 2021, but it currently presents several characteristics: it has not recovered before the epidemic, and is facing slowdown and differentiation. Recovery differentiation leads to policy differentiation, and emerging market countries may suffer from policy spillover impact; China's economy: pressure for steady growth has increased, price constraints have weakened, steady growth has both power and conditions, and monetary and fiscal space is expected to be opened.
Strategic Outlook: under the background of "economy down + credit up", we believe that the market is expected to change from "performance bull" to "valuation bull"; In terms of style, growth stocks may be expected to enjoy a higher valuation premium.
Short term: focus on the repair opportunities of large financial valuations and the reversal of midstream difficulties.
Large financial sector valuation repair opportunities. At present, the large financial sector is almost at the lowest undervalued level in history, and is lower than the valuation of the corresponding sectors of US stocks. In liquidity Panasonic, we believe that the large financial sector has the power of valuation repair, especially the brokerage sector, as the most growing segment, may be expected to obtain higher elasticity.
Midstream dilemma reversal. In 2022, the price rise of bulk commodities slows down or brings opportunities for dilemma reversal in the middle and lower reaches. In addition, some consumer goods are also expected to be in dilemma reversal; According to the degree of distress, industry volume and future improvement expectations, we focus on the reversal expectations of automobile and animal husbandry.
Long term: high quality development is expected to give birth to the golden age of capital market, and growth is the main theme.
At present, China's economy is equivalent to the United States in the late 1970s, Japan in the 1980s and South Korea in the 1990s. The above-mentioned countries have experienced a central downturn in economic growth at the corresponding stage, but the stock index has ushered in a "sweet period" of 10 or even 20 years. For example, thanks to the double-click of Davis, the stock index of U.S. stocks increased by more than 10 times in the 20 years from 1980 to 1999. The main reason behind this is that although the overall economic growth was down, it benefited from technological progress, institutional change and industrial upgrading. During this period, the cost of labor costs, taxes, interest rates and other costs showed a significant decline. At the same time, globalization opened up market space, The improvement of competition pattern has boosted the profit margin level of listed companies, pushed up the profit end, and ushered in a new era.
At present, China's economy is ushering in a period of high-quality development. Referring to the development laws of the above countries, we believe that under the high-quality development, medium and long-term opportunities in China's capital market are becoming prominent.
Industry opportunities under high-quality development.
High quality development may bring opportunities in the following aspects: (1) energy revolution: low-carbon slope and thick snow; (2) efficiency improvement: the digital wave has arrived; (3) market reform: from localization to globalization; (4) income distribution: common prosperity is the general trend; (5) people-oriented: meeting diversified consumption needs.
Risk statement
Repeated epidemic situation; Economic growth slows down; The Fed raised interest rates in advance; Real estate regulation exceeded expectations.
