1. Compared with the central economic work conference, the main differences in the judgment of the current situation in the regular monetary policy meeting in the fourth quarter are: 1) in the judgment of the external environment, it is proposed that the evolution of the global epidemic has increased "more complex, severe and uncertain", or it is affected by the recent development of overseas Omicron epidemic; 2) The triple pressure on China's economy continues the wording of the central economic work conference, pointing out that China's economic development is facing three pressures: demand shock, supply shock and weakening expectation.
2. Compared with the central economic work conference, The regular meeting proposed for the first time that "we should give full play to the dual functions of the aggregate and structure of monetary policy tools, be more proactive and promising, increase support for the real economy, and increase the expectation of further overweight of monetary policy. In addition, we should revisit the wording of" maintaining the growth of money supply and social financing scale, basically matching the economic growth of the same meaning, and maintaining the basic stability of macro leverage ratio ". Specifically, the aggregate policy is more proactive and promising, and it is possible to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates. Structural policy will be an important starting point for steady growth next year. We judge that the highlights of structural policy next year mainly lie in: 1) two monetary policy tools directly reaching the real economy are transformed into market-oriented policy tools supporting inclusive small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households; 2) Promote the introduction and implementation of structural policies, such as carbon emission reduction support tools and special refinancing to support clean and efficient utilization of coal; 3) Guide financial institutions to increase support for small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development, and continue to increase support for refinancing and rediscount of small and micro enterprises.
3. As for real estate, the meeting called for safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers, better meeting the reasonable housing needs of property buyers and promoting the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market. Compared with the central economic work conference, the new "better meeting the reasonable housing needs of property buyers and promoting the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market" was added, It shows that the marginal correction of real estate at the policy side will be further promoted. It is reported that the mortgage interest rates of banks in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other places have been reduced recently. Among them, the interest rates of the first and second mortgage loans of banks in Shenzhen have been reduced by 15bp, and the lending time has been shortened at the same time. It can be seen that the real estate policy is expected to further improve the financial environment such as mortgage interest rate and mortgage interest rate, From the perspective of policy expression, the marginal correction in the real estate field is expected to be further strengthened. There is no need to be overly pessimistic about real estate investment next year, and it is expected to achieve positive growth in the whole year..
Risk tip: the epidemic exceeded expectations, monetary policy was less loose than expected, and the change of macro environment exceeded expectations
