Summary:
Economic Growth: looking forward to 2022, in the face of the pressure of China's economic slowdown, the demand for stable growth in policies will continue to increase, fiscal policy will accelerate, the marginal of monetary policy will become loose, the downward pressure on the economy may be relieved, and the growth rate will be low before and high after. 1) Green, low-carbon and industrial transformation are the main lines of fixed asset investment development. Among them, accelerating counter cyclical regulation will promote the recovery of infrastructure investment, and the highlight is the new infrastructure; Under strict control, the year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment may continue to decline, and there may even be a risk of negative growth; Manufacturing investment will remain high, the structure will continue to be upgraded and optimized, and the investment related to industrial upgrading will remain high. 2) The impact of repeated disturbance of the epidemic and differentiation of residents' income still exists, but with the further normalization of epidemic prevention and control and the increase of covid-19 prevention and control methods, there will be some improvement in the margin. It is expected that there is still room for repair of consumption in 2022, but the growth center may be difficult to return to the pre epidemic level. 3) The export growth center may fall: first, the gap between overseas supply and demand will gradually narrow, and China's export demand will fall; Second, the high-speed consumption of overseas durable goods overdraw part of the future demand; Third, the pull of price factors on exports will be weakened. However, there is still room to release the backward demand due to the tight shipping, and the economic recovery of developing countries remains to be continued, which will support the resilience of China's exports in the future to a certain extent.
Price: in the first half of the year, the price of pork will still fall to the bottom, and the most optimistic cycle will reverse in the middle of 2022, but the strength may be limited. The price of crude oil may fall year-on-year, and the service price is difficult to do anything. The CPI will rise moderately on the whole, with the center around 2.3%. In terms of PPI: global demand has fallen, commodity demand will further weaken in 2022, and the supply chain will gradually improve. With the gradual tightening of policies by the Federal Reserve, the financial environment is no longer loose. It is expected that PPI will decline year-on-year, but low-carbon transformation and supply chain bottlenecks will continue to affect PPI. Generally speaking, PPI in 2022 will be higher than that in the previous year or lower than that in the previous year, and then lower quarter by quarter.
Policy Outlook: in the face of new downward pressure, the central economic work conference called for the introduction of policies conducive to economic stability, and the policy force should be advanced appropriately. The fiscal policy will ensure the intensity of expenditure, accelerate the progress of expenditure, and serve steady growth through tax reduction and fee reduction and infrastructure investment; Monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, guide financial institutions to increase their support for the real economy, and lower reserve requirements and interest rates can still be expected.
Risk concerns: the covid-19 epidemic is out of control, the policy force is less than expected, and the overseas downside risk is increased.
