Summary:
1、 The LPR interest rate was lowered and the easing expectation remained unchanged. On December 20, the one-year LPR was lowered by 5bp to 3.8%, which had remained unchanged at 3.85% for 19 consecutive months; The five-year LPR remained unchanged at 4.65% for 20 consecutive months. 1) First, the central bank cut the reserve requirement twice, saving about 28 billion yuan in capital costs for banks. The decline in the cost of liabilities pushed banks to compress and add points, triggering the reduction of one-year LPR quotation this month. Second, the reduction of one-year LPR quotation this month will directly promote the decline of financing costs of the real economy and reflect the goal of “stable growth” of monetary policy. 2) This month’s five-year LPR was not lowered simultaneously, indicating that financial institutions continue to implement the central government’s policy requirements for real estate regulation and implement the policy tone of “housing without speculation”, which is conducive to promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry. “Supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers” is an emphasis on the attribute of “housing”, It is not a change of attitude towards “speculation”. 3) In 2022, the economic work will be “steady, seek progress while maintaining stability, and make appropriate policy efforts”. The monetary policy will continue to release the reform potential of quoted interest rate in the loan market and promote the steady decline of comprehensive financing costs of enterprises. Under the sound monetary policy tone, it is expected that the probability of significant adjustment of LPR in 2022 is small, but it is in the demand of steady growth in the first half of the year, and there is still room for slight reduction of short-term LPR quotation. In addition, considering that reducing the entity financing cost by reducing the bank interest margin may affect the effect of stabilizing credit, it is still possible to reduce the bank liability end cost by reducing the MLF interest rate in the future, so as to further reduce the entity financing cost.
2、 US GDP slightly exceeded expectations in the third quarter. The final value of real GDP in the United States increased at an annual rate of 2.3 in the third quarter. The revised final value of GDP released in the third quarter was slightly better than market expectations. Among them, consumer spending, inventory investment and fixed asset investment were revised upward, while exports were significantly reduced, indicating that the contribution rate of consumption to the sustained recovery of the U.S. economy has been strengthened, while the contribution rate of foreign trade is relatively low. In the future, there are still uncertainties in the U.S. economic recovery. On the one hand, the highly infectious Omicron mutant virus has caused a surge in the number of infected people in the United States, and the epidemic continues to spread, which still suppresses the economic recovery; On the other hand, Democrat Manchin did not support the $1.75 trillion “rebuilding the good” bill promoted by President Biden, which forced the bill to be delayed, hit consumer spending and confidence, and slowed down the recovery of the labor market.
3、 The number of new cases in Europe and the United States rose sharply. In the last week, the number of newly confirmed cases in the world further increased to 740000 cases / day (7-day moving average), of which the number of newly confirmed cases in the United States increased to 180000 cases / day and the number of newly confirmed cases in the United Kingdom increased to 96000 cases / day. In view of the surge of covid-19 variant virus Omicron infection cases and the rising number of hospitalizations, London mayor Sadik Khan announced that London had entered the state of “major accident”.
4、 The market mood fluctuates greatly and the commodity trend repeats. While China continues to release the signal of stable growth policy, disturbing factors are also increasing. First, Omicron virus spreads rapidly in many countries, and some countries take new restrictive measures; Second, the geopolitical crisis between the United States, Europe and Russia is difficult to solve. The game of Beixi No. 2 affects the expectation of natural gas supply and exacerbates the “energy crisis” in Europe; Third, the Fed released more hawkish information, and the expectation of raising interest rates in 2022 is rising. Generally speaking, the current market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the commodity trend is still repeated. In the medium and long term, we should pay attention to the structural opportunities brought by the policy of internal loosening and external tightening, that is, more black, empty and colored. abstract
