During the exchange with market investors this week, I found that I was very concerned about the policies of the two sessions. In the previous weekly report, we have repeatedly stressed that it is worth looking forward to the further clarification and implementation of measures related to steady growth in the two sessions. According to the government work report of the two sessions, the economic growth target in 2022 is about 5.5%, improve the efficiency of active fiscal policy, strengthen the implementation of prudent monetary policy, and do everything possible to stabilize and expand employment. It is not difficult to see that in the face of the obvious increase in risks and challenges faced by China's development this year, the steady growth signal transmitted by the government work report of the two sessions is very strong.
From the structural level, we summarize the key words of policy focus covered in the government work report of the two sessions for investors' reference:
1. Manufacturing industry: specialized, special and new, medium and high-end
2. Emerging industries: digital economy, integrated circuit, industrial Internet
3. Supply chain security: Food and energy security and stable price level
4. Rural Revitalization: Seed Industry and modern agriculture
5. Consumption: new energy vehicles, green smart appliances
6. Infrastructure construction: pipeline network renewal and reconstruction, old community reconstruction
7. Carbon neutralization: solar energy consumption (energy storage), energy conservation and carbon reduction in traditional industries
8. Educational equity: reducing the burden of compulsory education
9. Spiritual culture: National Fitness
10. Real estate: urban construction and affordable housing construction
To grasp the current inflection point is the most fundamental for the market. We have always been full of confidence in the effect of the government and policies. The current policy signal is conducive to correcting the overly pessimistic expectation of molecular fundamental profits.
Here, we once again emphasize that the current market is at the bottom of the strategy, has a bright heart and does not have the conditions for systematic decline. Similar to 2012, the possibility of unilateral decline in the equity market is low, and the structural market is still firm and predictable. We maintain the judgment that we are currently in a "positional war" (strategic stalemate, stick to positions, maintain concentration, and it is not suitable for switching back and forth). The consensus of the market will focus on the low position, looking for growth + short term (Q1 performance exceeds expectations and strong policy support).
At the same time, the current market has four main lines: steady growth, high prosperity, post epidemic repair and global inflation. During this period, the market's concern about global inflation is rising, which makes: 1. The market of energy products is relatively dominant; 2. The overvalued value is under further pressure; 3. The transmission of pessimistic expectations from peripheral markets, especially the US stock market; 4. Cost shocks continue to suppress the midstream manufacturing industry. For the worry about global inflation, we believe that although it is difficult to end in the short term, it will not change the internal operation logic of a shares. The follow-up space and sustainability of global inflation in the future still need further observation on the Fed's interest rate hike, China's economic fundamentals and transmission to a shares. Don't take "foresight" as "near worry". The subsequent judgment of A-Shares is mainly based on the changes of internal factors. In China, the high probability of post epidemic repair will be subject to the recent local epidemic in China and the lack of obvious adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies. In studying and judging the relationship between high prosperity and steady growth, we put forward two sentences: the first sentence is called "stable growth cannot afford, high prosperity is difficult to prosper", and the second sentence is called "steady growth can be realized, and high prosperity will turn for the better". To a certain extent, in December last year and January this year, it reflected a situation of "stable growth can not afford, high prosperity is difficult to prosper". Then, with the convening of the two sessions, it will gradually come to a process of steady growth and high prosperity. At the same time, we believe that the high boom will have a process of differentiation and rebirth. Intelligence is expected to become a new consensus for the high boom in 2022. The essence behind it is to find growth + short duration in the low position (Q1 performance exceeds expectations and strong policy support). (for details, please refer to 2022, our choice - A-share core industry track monthly review (issue 1))
Risk tip: the spread of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the policy was less than expected, the Sino US relations deteriorated again, and the overseas monetary policy changed
