Core view
Review: on January 3, "it's the turn of big finance" emphasized the attention to the "big finance" market, which is the winner and loser of 2022 investment. Later on January 9, "big finance is the current market" β》、 Reports such as "retreat or attack, rely on big finance" on January 16, "big finance, continue to cut" on February 6, and "what else can big finance buy" on February 20 continue to emphasize that big finance seems to be defensive, but in fact, the best attack is to cut to big Finance (bank and real estate chain).
The uncertainty superimposed by the four phases gradually subsided. The 2022 government work report was released. The 5.5% GDP target was the upper limit of investors' previous expectations. The strength and importance of "steady growth" exceeded expectations. Real estate is an important starting point for steady growth investment. Because urban policies and "new citizens" will jointly improve the opportunities of the real estate chain, the main line of "big finance" is expected to return again. Grasp the opportunity of adding large finance (real estate chain and bank), and pay attention to opportunities related to digital economy cloud, photovoltaic, wind power and so on.
Over the past 2-3 weeks, the market has changed a lot and uncertainties have increased. In the face of the internal economic data verification period, the policy expectation period of China's two sessions, the landing period of the external fed interest rate meeting and the fermentation period of Russia Ukraine conflict. Market correspondence also lacks the main line, with scattered hot spots. Digital economy, new energy, military industry, mass food, pig, cycle and big finance all perform, but the sustainability is not good.
When the government work report is released in 2022, the "big finance" market is expected to become the main line of the market again.
After the economic work conference in December last year, the market's expectation of "steady growth" has increased. On the whole, it is hesitant and there are few participants. By January 3, we released "it's the turn of big finance", emphasizing that "big finance" will become the winner of investment in 2022. Coupled with a series of measures such as interest rate reduction and reserve requirement reduction, investors' expectations for "steady growth" have been strengthened, and banking, real estate and other industries have gradually come to the fore and become the main line of the market. On February 11, Tianliang social finance was issued, and the financial data were fulfilled. Some investors believed that the expectation of steady growth was fulfilled, and the policy strength was limited, resulting in profit taking. Therefore, in the past two weeks or so, the market is still looking for a new main line... The 2022 government work report is issued, and "big finance" is expected to start a new round of upward attack. The guiding significance of the government work report for the whole year's economy is that the GDP growth rate is set at 5.5%, which is basically the upper limit generally expected by investors. We believe that there will be greater policy support in the follow-up. March, April and even may are expected to become another period of intensive policy introduction after the economic work conference in December last year. Only with greater efforts, greater support and greater stability maintenance, we are expected to see a greater possibility of achieving the 5.5% target.
The market interpretation of "big finance" will start from two angles. March is at the intersection of economic data, financial data and policies. In this process, the quality of the data will open the blind box to show the more real side of the current economic situation. Of course, there will be different interpretations and understandings for data investors. On the whole, if the data is good, the "big finance" will be deduced from the market stage of expectation to data verification, and the rise with fundamental support will be smoother. If the data is not good, facing the GDP target of about 5.5%, the market will expect and expect more "stable growth" policies and measures, and the interpretation of the "big finance" market will repeat the expected fermentation stage after the economic work conference. In this process, we have passed the blind box stage of economic data, and the market will enter the cross verification period of high-frequency economic data at the macro level and the first quarterly report of listed companies at the micro level. Under the two-way promotion of expectations and fundamentals, the interpretation of large financial market is expected to exceed market expectations.
Why does the main line of the market return to "big finance" again? Let's start with the four key points of steady growth. What are the corresponding investment opportunities in infrastructure, manufacturing, real estate and consumption?
1) for infrastructure construction, the policy direction is scattered rather than focused, and there is no clear main line of investment opportunities. The government work report emphasizes that the focus of infrastructure construction lies in the "water conservancy project", "comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network", "energy base and facilities", "urban gas pipeline renovation", "flood control and drainage facilities" and "underground pipe gallery" of "old infrastructure". Planning and construction of "new infrastructure" information infrastructure, large-scale wind power base and power supply. On the whole, the investment direction of infrastructure construction is not significantly higher than expected, which is similar to the expectation of investors. Specifically, what one belt, one road, is, in February 20th, "big finance can buy", which is not exactly the same as the stock price performance. The stock market performs better. It needs capital market to see that capital investment can focus on a new field, not just spot, scattered, similar to 10-11 years of high speed rail and 14 years of "one belt and one road". 16 years of "PPP". If there is a similar new focus direction, investors need to pay attention to such changes. At present, we do not see such a signal.
2) for the manufacturing industry, focus on the improvement of the cash flow of the manufacturing industry caused by the tax rebate. For manufacturing investment, the focus of policy support is to reduce taxes and fees, provide financial support, and further implement financial service entities. Similar measures, such as guiding financial institutions to increase medium - and long-term loans to the manufacturing industry and tax rebates of 2.5 trillion yuan (1.5 trillion yuan of tax rebates), have a positive effect on the business environment of the manufacturing industry. Secondly, efforts should be made to cultivate "specialized and special new" enterprises and advanced manufacturing clusters, which can grasp some corresponding investment opportunities. Of course, the most worthy of attention comes from the retention and tax rebate policy. The retention and tax rebate is mainly for enterprises that have not yet deducted the current retention and tax rebate, so as to increase the flexibility of enterprise cash flow, which will have a good effect on small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and manufacturing industry.
3) for the real estate, the urban implementation strategy and "new citizens" will jointly enhance the opportunities of the real estate chain in the big finance. Focus on three changes. First, explore a new development model, and focus on the construction of affordable housing and long-term rental housing. The construction of affordable housing in 2022 will play a better role in stimulating real estate investment. Second, implement policies according to the city to support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing demand. From the "it's the turn of big finance" on January 3, we put forward to pay attention to investment opportunities such as banks and real estate chains, and we are expected to see the marginal improvement of real estate demand side and supply side policies. Over the past two months, our view of "big finance" has been continuously verified. We have also seen that more than 40 cities have made urban implementation arrangements in terms of down payment ratio, loan interest rate and house and loan recognition. In particular, the changes in Guangzhou, Chongqing, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Zhengzhou and other places are more instructive. Third, on March 4, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the people's Bank of China just issued the notice on strengthening the financial services of new citizens. According to chairman Guo Shuqing, the so-called "new citizens" are those who have lived in cities and towns but have no registered permanent residence; Or just got a registered permanent residence for less than two or three years. With a population of more than 300 million, they are faced with the needs of living and working in peace and contentment, employment and entrepreneurship, renting and buying houses. This demand and the support of financial services are expected to improve the basic demand for housing. Positive changes are taking place and strengthening on the supply side and demand side of the real estate chain. The pessimistic expectation of real estate should be repaired and changed. Accordingly, the share prices of home appliances, household appliances and consumer building materials in real estate enterprises and real estate chains that benefit from the recovery of real estate should get corresponding performance.
4) for consumption, the position of the main ministries and commissions is relatively consistent with that after the economic work conference, focusing on durable goods, which basically meets the market expectation.
That is, mainly new energy vehicles, home appliances to the countryside and old for new. In this part, new energy vehicles need to combine the verification of actual sales data with investors' expectations to grasp the investment opportunities corresponding to expected changes. Household appliances can track the follow-up progress and grasp relevant opportunities in time in combination with the changes of real estate sales data. Another focus of consumption lies in the service consumption fields such as rural e-commerce logistics, elderly care and child rearing.
Investment suggestion: add the main line of "big finance" (real estate chain and bank), and pay attention to the opportunities related to the cloud of digital economy, photovoltaic and wind power.
First, the economic downward pressure and steady growth policy hedge, coupled with the marginal improvement of relevant policies for real estate enterprises. 1) The State Council encourages qualified areas to carry out the renewal of rural household appliances and implement subsidies for furniture and home decoration to the countryside. 2) national measures for the supervision of real estate pre-sale funds have been issued, and the flexibility of fund use has been improved. These steady growth policies are improving, as the city's policy implementation is being strengthened and the demand side relaxation is being implemented. We can pay attention to state-owned and private enterprises of high-quality real estate. Those with strong alpha attribute in the real estate chain and C-end consumption attribute, such as home appliances, household appliances and consumer building materials, are expected to usher in the dual catalysis of valuation repair and performance growth.
Second, the credit data of January has been verified. The macro economy is picking up from the bottom, and the whole is still in the window period of monetary easing and credit easing. The recent risk appetite of the market is low, and the banking sector with low valuation, high dividend attribute and pro cyclical attribute is expected to be favored. At the same time, since 2016, the bank has continuously cleared the asset quality + made a large number of full provisions, with less bad book. In the future, the bank may have an upward roe, and the improvement of asset quality will contribute to the recovery of the valuation of the banking sector. We can focus on big banks that underestimate the value of "stagflation" and urban commercial banks and agricultural commercial banks in Chengdu Chongqing economic circle, Yangtze River Delta economic circle and other places.
Third, the direction of growth and breathing is centered on two chains. First, around the "double carbon" economy, combined with the current direction of reasonable chip structure, upward prosperity and guaranteed performance, photovoltaic and wind power. Second, under the background of "counting from the east to the west", build national data center clusters in Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Dawan District, Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu Chongqing, Guizhou, Gansu, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. The digital economy will rise as a national strategy in the 14th five year plan, and we can pay attention to the infrastructure direction represented by cloud computing and data center.
Risk tip: the spread of the epidemic exceeded expectations and the tightening of the Federal Reserve exceeded expectations.
