Anxin macro
The setting of the annual GDP growth target of 5.5% is the most important signal. In this context, what are the prospects for the operation of the economy and the market? With the implementation of the policy and the appearance of the effect, the economy is expected to hit the bottom and recover in the middle of the year this year, and the economic performance in the second half of the year may be stronger than that in the first half of the year. For the equity market, the market may still be under pressure in the short term due to the overseas conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Fed’s interest rate hike and the continued decline of China’s economy. From the perspective of the whole year, the economy will eventually hit the bottom and rebound, and promote the profitability of listed companies. At the same time, the loose liquidity environment will also help to repair the valuation. Therefore, we are relatively optimistic about the equity market in the medium term.
Anxin strategy
The announcement of the economic target data and policies of the two sessions represents that the steady growth and counter cyclical policies have gradually entered the fulfillment period, and the market sentiment has also been reassured. For the market itself, the focus of controversy in the market has always been when there is an inflection point in the profit expectation of the molecular end; In the follow-up, we need to track the implementation of this steady growth policy. The follow-up interpretation of the market is still structural. We should still follow the direction of steady growth and high prosperity. At present, the whole market belongs to a strategic bottom. We should have confidence in the future economic or fundamental growth.
Anxin environmental protection public
On the whole, we focus on green power and environmental protection policies to maintain the consistency and sustainability of policies. We may pay attention to a statement: “the energy consumption intensity target will be comprehensively assessed during the 14th Five Year Plan period, with appropriate flexibility”. We believe that this is not a relaxation of the assessment target, but to avoid one size fits all and great leap forward development. In terms of environmental protection, on the whole, it is proposed to strengthen the comprehensive treatment of the ecological environment, deepen the battle of pollution prevention and control, and the policy continues to support the prevention and control of pollutants in various fields of air, water, soil and solid waste. From the perspective of investment, we suggest increasing the allocation of defensive public utilities. Select targets with undervalued value and high growth certainty: the green power sector focuses on [ China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ] at the current time point, and the dimension of the whole year is optimistic [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ]; [ Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) ] and [ Road Environment Technology Co.Ltd(688156) ] are recommended by the environmental protection sector.
Anxin Shiyin
The report focuses on promoting the sustained recovery of consumption. Our interpretation of the government work report is that the overall boost of residents’ consumption behavior is expected, but it may not come so soon. In the medium term, we can be optimistic about the consumption sector. But in the short term, the recovery of consumption scenario is the main logic running through the food and beverage sector. First of all, in the medium-term dimension, we believe that the emphasis on improving consumption capacity and willingness in the work report makes us less pessimistic about the medium-term consumption sector. In the short-term dimension, based on the implementation of the precise epidemic prevention and control policy, we are optimistic about the scene recovery. Accordingly, the sub category of the scenario dependent on the sector is benefited from this, and is expected to achieve high prosperity. We are optimistic about the sub sectors of regional Baijiu, Baijiu, beer, food and beverage supply chain (such as braised flavor, condiment, quick frozen, prefabricated vegetables, etc.) and snacks. Its investment rhythm is also related to the sequence of scenario recovery.
Anxin automobile
The government work report on March 5, 2022 clearly mentioned to continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles. On March 4, 2022, the prices of several important models of GAC ea’an (small leader of new energy vehicles) were raised collectively. The prices of aiony (cars in their early 100000 years) increased by 10000, and the average prices of aionv and other models also increased by 4000 to 5000. You may be worried about the demand for automobile consumption, but we think that first, from the perspective of policy, the government has clear support, such as purchase tax. Second, from the demand side, we are optimistic about the total demand for new energy vehicles this year.
On the subject, we still recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) and GAC, one growth stock and one cycle stock. The key parts we recommend are the whole electric control section of the motor, among which Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) , and other auto parts are also optimistic about Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group Co.Ltd(603035) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) and a series of parts companies.
Anxin machinery
1) energy revolution: in the government work report, it is proposed to promote the planning and construction of large-scale wind power base and its supporting regulatory power supply, and improve the consumption capacity of power grid for renewable energy power generation. This is also proposed in the government work report after the wind power base was proposed in China’s 14th five year plan in March 2021. From the perspective of installed capacity, we judge that 2022 is the year of large installed capacity (hoisting caliber) in China. 2) Steady growth: the government work report proposed a special debt of 3.65 trillion in 2022, in line with expectations. In this main line, we focus on two sub industries [construction machinery] and [general equipment]. 3) Specialization and Innovation: the government work report proposes to focus on cultivating “specialization and innovation” enterprises and give strong support in terms of capital, talents and incubation platform Promote the construction of a quality power and promote the industry to move towards medium and high-end.
Anxin computer
At the opening of the national two sessions, the government work report mentioned the development of digital economy. Invest in IT infrastructure moderately ahead of schedule and pay attention to the construction of new infrastructure; Digital industrialization emphasizes the technological innovation and supply capacity of key software and hardware, and pays attention to data security and network security industries. In industrial digitization, the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry is the focus, and attention is paid to the reconstruction of industrial foundation. The investment in informatization in the field of people’s livelihood is expected to accelerate.
Anxin bank
Expand the scale of new credit and expand the power of credit; Promote financial institutions to reduce the real loan interest rate, but dilute the requirement of interest transfer. In the coming months, we believe that as the steady growth policy enters the intensive landing stage, the real estate policy will be gradually relaxed and continue to be optimistic about the investment value of bank stocks. Individual stocks can be selected along two ideas: first, the valuation is low β Strong attributes, benefiting from the implementation of steady growth policies, and focusing on Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) ; Second, have α Excellent logic, fundamentals and outstanding business model. Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) .
Anxin military industry
In 2022, the national defense budget increased by 7.1% year-on-year, which is a stable and reasonable growth, and the GDP target for the same period is 5.5%. Pay attention to the change of military expenditure structure and pay attention to the comparison of international horizontal indicators. Significant progress has been made in national defense and military construction, and a good start has been made in the 14th five year plan. At present, the adjustment of the sector is in place. Pay attention to the time window of the financial reporting season and grasp the deterministic opportunities within the year. Key recommendations: Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , it is suggested to pay attention to: missile industry chain, aviation development industry chain and military industry unit of science and innovation board.
Risk tips: policy promotion is not as expected, global inflation is higher than expected, the spread of the epidemic is higher than expected, China US relations deteriorate again, and overseas monetary policy changes
