I. short term oversold rebound: twists and turns
1. In the early stage, we judged that the conditions for market oversold rebound mainly include two aspects: ① the large force of credit expansion is coming; ② US bond interest rates are no longer rising rapidly.
2. These two conditions were reached just before and after February 11, so we can see that the lowest point of Ning Portfolio Index came into being in these days.
3. At the same time, the yield difference between CSI 500 shares and bonds broke the – 2x standard deviation before the Spring Festival, and the yield difference between pharmaceutical and biological index shares and bonds reached the – 2x standard deviation after the Spring Festival, which are all signals that the stage will stabilize after extreme pessimism.
4. Considering the first quarter report and some good economic directions, the oversold rebound may not be over: such as photovoltaic, medicine, wind power, IGBT, military industry, semiconductor equipment and materials, lithium mine, PPI and other fields.
5. However, the process may be subject to twists and turns: on the one hand, the incremental capital is insufficient, on the other hand, the peripheral disturbance is large.
II. Medium term market trend: no break, no stand
1. In the next six months, in the two-dimensional framework of credit profit, ① credit will gradually expand; ② Profit decline; ③ The stock bond yield difference is near the average value, and the valuation is not cheap – corresponding to the early stage of credit expansion. In the early stage of credit expansion in history, the market performance is relatively general, and there is only the opportunity of oversold rebound. Superimposed with overseas geopolitics and high oil prices, the risk may still need to be careful after the oversold rebound.
The main line of the market at this stage is also relatively chaotic. The opportunities of stable growth in financial real estate, PPI over expected cyclical products and high-end manufacturing with good prosperity may be intertwined.
2. In the second half of the year, in the two-dimensional framework of credit profit, ① credit continues to expand; ② Profits bottomed out and rebounded; ③ The yield difference between stocks and bonds may fall back to the extremely cheap position of – 2x standard deviation; ④ High risk appetite before the 20th National Congress – before that, the market may need to digest external risks, break first and then stand up. A shares may have index level opportunities in the second half of the year, and positions may become winners and losers at this stage.
The main line of the market at this stage may be relatively clear with the opening of a new round of A-share cycle. Investors will look for a new main track that can come out in the next two years. At that time, TMT is more likely.
III. spirit of the two sessions: concentrate on ensuring credit expansion
1. Everything serves steady growth: the target setting of “about 5.5% is a strong binding indicator and is on the high side of market expectations. From the rhythm of application of special bonds and the sub items of social finance at the beginning of the year, the starting season from March to the second quarter is the most critical period for steady growth. Structurally, the policy margin of phased traditional means of steady growth is greater. In terms of infrastructure, the recent statement is mainly added to traditional infrastructure fields such as water conservancy, transportation, energy and urban pipe gallery;
2. Manufacturing industry is still the basic economic sector: on the one hand, under the basic tone of the traditional means of steady growth, we should see that manufacturing industry is still the direction of policy. The manufacturing data in the second half of last year continued to exceed expectations, leaving time and space for the old economic sectors to dismantle mines; In the process from the end of the current policy to the substantial improvement of fundamentals, it is more necessary to stabilize the overall situation of the manufacturing industry. On the other hand, there is an obvious split within the manufacturing data. Under the superposition of triple pressure, small enterprises are facing great pressure. From the perspective of the key chain of “export → manufacturing → employment”, the stability of the manufacturing industry directly determines the effect of “employment priority” and the strength of steady growth.
3. The dividend of hard science and technology policy is more malleable and deterministic: it is not only the strength of short-term demand, but also the long-term driving force. Key words: ten-year plan for basic research + three-year plan for the implementation of scientific and technological system reform; Implement the national strategic emerging industry cluster project and strive to cultivate “specialized and special new” enterprises; Name the digital economy, promote the large-scale application of 5g, and cultivate industries such as industrial Internet, integrated circuit and artificial intelligence.
4. Attach importance to four “security”: ① food security (the red line of 1.3 trillion Jin of comprehensive grain production capacity has been defined for two consecutive years); ② National defense and security (national defense budget expenditure of 1.45 trillion in 2022, returning to the “7 era” year-on-year); ③ Supply chain security and strategic material security, on the one hand, point to the domestic substitution of high-end manufacturing industry (the first mention of “leading enterprise chain guarantee and chain stabilization project”), on the other hand, point to energy and bulk supply; ④ Information security (emphasizing “promoting national security system and capacity-building”).
Risk tips: geopolitical upgrading, intensified supply chain crisis, inflation restricting the space for steady growth, etc
