Comments on key news of the week: the oil price has broken 100, and the impact has intensified
With the intensification of external shocks, A-Shares fell in shock and commodities performed strongly. In February, the PMI rose slightly month on month, but the external risks continued to be disturbed, the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine became white hot, and Powell "was open to more radical measures in the future". With the intensification of external fluctuations, commodities performed strongly this week, oil prices rose by more than 20%, and oil distribution hit a record high of nearly $120.
Macro highlights: PMI slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points month on month in January and February; 2. Powell supported raising interest rates by 25 basis points in March, but "was open to more radical measures in the future"; 3. The US February non farm employment data was significantly better than expected; 4. The armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is white hot, the price of crude oil is rising, and the risk aversion is rising; 5. The "two sessions" were officially opened, and the leaders of the State Council made a government work report.
Resumption of A-share market: A-share adjustment, led by mass entrepreneurship and innovation
Index and style: A shares fell, dominated by other services and upstream resources. The Shanghai Composite Index and China composite 500 fell slightly, with weekly increases and decreases of - 0.11% and - 0.23% respectively. From the perspective of individual stock new highs, the proportion of individual stocks with stock prices reaching new highs on the 60th and 250th fell slightly month on month. From the absolute performance of style, other services and upstream resources, small cap, low P / E ratio and loss making stocks are dominant.
Industry performance: mixed, led by coal, transportation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. From the perspective of individual stocks' new highs, the proportion of individual stocks in coal, petroleum, petrochemical and transportation industries is high.
Leading index: in the past 20 days, China Securities 1000 dominated, and coal and non-ferrous metals led the rise.
Valuation tracking: the valuation of A-Shares fell, and the degree of differentiation of Industry Valuation converged slightly.
Overseas market review: most global stock markets fell
Most global stock indexes fell, with Australia's S S & P 200, South Korea's Kospi and Brazil's ibov performing relatively well.
US stock market: the index fell in an all-round way, the industry rose and fell in half, energy, public utilities and real estate rose first, and the growth and market style were relatively dominant. The overall valuation of the index declined, and the industry valuation fluctuated.
Hong Kong Stock Market: the index fell across the board, most industries fell, and the energy industry, raw materials industry and telecommunications industry performed relatively well. The index valuation has declined in an all-round way, and the industry valuation has declined as a whole.
Performance of major categories of assets: RMB devaluation, falling risk appetite at home and abroad
Global markets fell sharply this week, with smaller declines in emerging markets. Commodity prices rose sharply, with crude oil, copper, industrial metals and gold all rising sharply. In terms of interest rate bonds, the long and short end interest rates of US bonds fell; In terms of credit bonds, China's 3-year and 5-year AAA + medium note credit spread expanded; In terms of convertible bonds, the convertible bond index fell. In terms of exchange rate, the US dollar index rose and the RMB and the euro depreciated. In terms of volatility, the VIX index rebounded.
In terms of relative performance of commodities, copper gold ratio and oil gold ratio rose, while London gold / CRB industrial metals fell. In terms of the relative performance of the bond market, the interest rate spreads between China and the United States and between Germany and the United States have expanded. In terms of the relative value of stocks and bonds, the revised risk premium under Wande's full a caliber and the risk premium of S & P 500 have rebounded.
Leading assets: crude oil, industrial metals and copper dominated the performance on the 20th.
Risk warning: Overseas volatility intensifies; Macroeconomic policy changes beyond expectations; Regulatory policies exceeded expectations.
