Main indexes of a shares: all A-Shares are near the 3-year 41% quantile of P / E ratio; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 / Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 are near the quantile of 50% / 44% of the three-year P / E ratio respectively; The price earnings ratio of CSI 500 / 1000 is below 2% in 3 years; The price earnings ratio of Kechuang 50 hit a new low. Or affected by the continuous conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the reduction of risk appetite, the performance of growth style this week was suppressed to a certain extent. The weekly mom of gem index / Ning portfolio valuation decreased by 0.3/4.0 respectively, which were near the 33% / 42% quantile value in three years.
Major indexes of overseas markets: geopolitical conflicts continue to suppress market sentiment. US stocks fell, the Hang Seng Index fell, and major European stock indexes also fell by a large margin. The performance of Na index / Hang Seng technology index / gem index with partial growth style is relatively weak.
Shenwan industry: the trading characteristics of market inflation this week are obvious. The disturbance of global resource supply caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is expected to drive the prices of crude oil / aluminum / coal and other commodities to a certain extent. The valuation levels of social services / agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery / coal and other sectors are among the highest compared with last week. The current five-year P / E ratio is 80% / 94% / 71% and the P / B ratio is 28% / 40% / 86% respectively. The social services sector benefited from the expected liberalization of epidemic control; Recently, the No. 1 central document was issued to focus on food security and promote seed industry revitalization. The seed industry has come to an important policy window period, which has superimposed pig production capacity and continued to increase Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices, and has catalyzed the performance of agriculture, forestry, livestock and fishery sectors. Among resource stocks, coal has the best performance. The recent profit forecast of the sector has been raised, but the current valuation has come to the observation range: 86% quantile of Pb in five years and 71% quantile of PE in five years. At the same time, with the expected landing of the two sessions, we tend to be cautious about the construction sector (PE 90% in three years and 62% in five years) with high valuation in the early stage.
Popular track and industrial chain: under the reduction of market risk appetite and the suppression of inflation expectations, the valuation of track stocks generally moved downward. From the perspective of PE (TTM), the military industry department has a 3-year 38% quantile value, the power battery Department has a 3-year 45% quantile value, and the photovoltaic Department has a 3-year 65% quantile value. The valuations of the three are about the level from April to June of 21; From the perspective of PE expectation, the valuation of CXO / power cell / semiconductor / photovoltaic in 22 years is 43 times / 41 times / 38 times / 28 times respectively. From the perspective of PEG in 22 years, the valuation of power cell / photovoltaic is 0.59/0.72 respectively. In the central budget for 22 years, China’s defense expenditure increased by 7.1%, the largest growth rate in recent three years. Under the catalysis of reasonable valuation level and prosperity, the military industry may have a certain allocation value.
Risk tip: the economy is less than expected and the epidemic situation is more than expected
