Core view
Continuously improve the ecological environment and promote green and low-carbon development. On the morning of March 5, Premier Li Keqiang delivered a government work report, which contained many statements on “double carbon” and environmental protection. The environmental protection part of the government work report not only continues the past comprehensive treatment of the ecological environment and the battle against pollution, but also provides support for the recycling industry of waste materials; The “double carbon” part still sets work goals around key words such as energy revolution and low-carbon transformation, and continues to promote the transformation from “double control” of energy consumption to “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity. It is suggested to pay attention to the subdivided areas benefiting from the “double carbon” policy, such as new energy power generation, thermal power transformation and recycling.
The goal of steady growth is clear, and the demand for cement, glass and consumer building materials is supported. The government work report puts forward the growth target of 5.5%, and points out that macro policies should strengthen cross cyclical and counter cyclical regulation to provide strong support for the smooth operation of the economy. This week, the cement price increased slightly month on month, and the clinker price continued to rise. The rise was mainly due to the low clinker inventory superimposed on the high fuel cost during peak staggering shutdown. At present, although the cement is in the off-season stage, the cement price is still at a historically high level. In terms of demand, with the warmer weather, the operating rate of downstream construction sites shows a steady upward trend, and the operating load of the mill is significantly higher than that of last week. With the start of construction in spring in March, the peak cement season is coming. In terms of supply, the staggered peak and kiln shutdown in March will be completed one after another, and the supply of clinker and cement will rise steadily. This week, the spot price of float glass showed a downward trend, the downstream demand was lower than expected, the inventory increased, and the overall market was under pressure. Subsequently, with the start of construction in spring, the glass market demand will grow steadily, and there is room for the price of float glass to increase.
Under the background of the new price mechanism and international energy tension, the volatility of the coal industry has weakened. The national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on further improving the coal market price formation mechanism. The floating range of the new coal price formation mechanism is further narrower than that in the previous draft for comments, and there is no longer a benchmark price. The prices within the range are driven by the market, and the prices outside the range will be strengthened by policy regulation; It is clear that coal-fired power prices can be effectively transmitted within a reasonable range, and coal-fired power generation enterprises can timely and reasonably transmit fuel cost changes within the range of no more than 20% of the benchmark price. The mechanism of improving coal price this time is of far-reaching significance, which helps to stabilize the expectation of long-term electricity coal contract price. The annual long-term association price still has a certain room for rise, and has a limited impact on the profitability of enterprises. Another background that cannot be ignored is the intensification of international energy tension and the rapid rise of fossil energy prices. In the medium and long term, coal prices will still be affected to some extent.
Investment recommendations: Environmental Public: recommendations for environmental protection and public: investment recommendations: Environmental Public: investment recommendations: Environmental Public: recommendations for the public: recommendations for the China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ ( Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co.Ltd(688087) . SH). Building materials: recommendations: building materials: building materials: building materials: building materials: building materials: building materials: building materials: recommendations: recommendations: recommendations of the Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ ( Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) . SH), China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) ( China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) . SH). Coal: recommended China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ( China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) . SH), Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) ( Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) . SH), Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) ( Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) . SZ), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ( Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) ( Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) ).
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices; The risk that the downstream demand is less than expected; The risk that the landing effect of production restriction is not as good as expected; The risk that the policy strength is less than expected; The risk that the new capacity of the industry exceeds the expectation; The risk of sharp decline in coal prices under the pressure of policy regulation.
