Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: the consumption of gold jewelry market picks up
Event: the China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) consumption in 2021 has returned to the pre epidemic level. From 2014 to 2019, China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) consumption was generally stable. Affected by covid-19 epidemic, China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) consumption fell to 612.65 tons in 2020, a decrease of 27.85% compared with 2019; The China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) consumption in 2021 was 960.12 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 56.72%, an increase of 13.07% compared with 2019. At present, the China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) consumption has returned to the pre epidemic level.
In 2022, the wedding market is expected to drive the consumption of gold jewelry. In 2020, the number of registered marriages nationwide was 8.13 million, a year-on-year decrease of 14.15%; In 2020, the market scale of China’s broad wedding industry was 17.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.90%. Although the number of registered marriages in 2020 decreased compared with 2019, the decline was much smaller than the decline in the scale of the wedding market, which shows that most weddings cannot be held as scheduled due to the epidemic. With the effective control of the epidemic, China’s wedding market is expected to gradually pick up, and the traditional demand for wedding gold is expected to be released this year, thus stimulating the consumption of gold jewelry.
Among Chinese jewelry enterprises, Chow Tai Fook has the highest market share. In 2020, Chow Tai Fook’s market share was 9.44%, ranking first among all jewelry enterprises, followed by Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) with a market share of 6.24%, ranking second. Other jewelry enterprises such as Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) , Zhou Shengsheng, Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Zhejiang Ming Jewelry Co.Ltd(002574) also have a certain market share, and the market share of the above seven enterprises is 22.72%, The concentration of jewelry industry is low.
With the effective control of the epidemic in China, the performance of jewelry enterprises rebounded rapidly in 2021. Among the listed companies with leading market share in the industry, Zhejiang Ming Jewelry Co.Ltd(002574) has the fastest growth rate of net profit Zhejiang Ming Jewelry Co.Ltd(002574) as one of the well-known jewelry enterprises in China, it is a leading manufacturer and retailer of platinum jewelry in the world. In the first half of 2021, the company’s operating revenue was 2.019 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.44%, and its net profit was 361 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 253538%.
Jewelry enterprises continue to layout the field of gold jewelry. Taking Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) as an example, in 2021 Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) increased investment in brand publicity and invited famous star Tang Yixin as brand ambassador to improve brand awareness; At the same time, the company has also launched “bamboo”, “hard stone”, “Shanyuan”, “Xuanjin”, “Fangyuan” and other new color gold trend products, so that the beauty of Eastern Pioneer Driving School Co.Ltd(603377) combined with the latest trend style can bring new vitality to Chinese traditional elements and craftsmanship.
Optimistic about the gold jewelry listed companies with channel advantages. With the recovery of consumption after the epidemic and the re wedding ceremony of married couples during the epidemic, the demand for gold jewelry has accelerated. The sense of design of brand gold jewelry is constantly improving, and the channels of leading enterprises are optimized. It is recommended to pay attention to: Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) ( Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) . SZ), Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) ( Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) . SZ), Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) ( Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) . SH), China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) ( China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) . SH), Chow Tai Fook (1929. HK).
Market review (February 28 – March 4):
Among the Shenwan level industries, the light industry manufacturing industry rose 0.10% this week, ranking 12th among Shenwan 31 level-1 industries, outperforming the market. Among the sub sectors, the paper sector performed better, up 3.91%, and the packaging and printing sector performed worse, down 1.78%; The textile and garment industry rose 0.39% this week, ranking 8th among Shenwan’s 31 primary industries, outperforming the market. Among the sub sectors, the clothing and home textile sector rose 1.00%, the textile manufacturing sector rose 0.47%, and the jewelry sector fell 1.59%.
Industry data tracking:
Furniture: timber prices rose this week, TDI prices fell this week compared with last week, and MDI prices fell compared with last week.
Papermaking: according to Zhuo Chuang information, in terms of pulp, on March 4, the market price of coniferous pulp was 690982 yuan / ton, up 3.35% from last Friday; The market price of broad-leaved pulp was 597386 yuan / ton, up 5.18% from last Friday; The market price of natural color pulp was 632500 yuan / ton, up 0.26% from last Friday; The market price of chemical mechanical pulp was 520000 yuan / ton, up 6.12% from last Friday. In terms of packaging paper, on March 4, the market price of corrugated paper was 383125 yuan / ton, down 0.97% from last Friday; The market price of white cardboard was 628500 yuan / ton, up 1.29% from last Friday. In terms of cultural printing paper, on March 4, the market price of double offset paper was 611250 yuan / ton, up 4.71% from last Friday; In terms of household paper, the market price on March 4 was 678333 yuan / ton, up 0.99% from last Friday.
Textile and clothing: on March 4, the price of cotton was 2268154 yuan / ton, down 0.40% from last week; The price of yarn has decreased and the price of polyester has increased.
Investment strategy:
Recently, the policy margin of the real estate industry has been relaxed. We believe that we can pay attention to the home sector in the near future. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ], [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ]; It is suggested to pay attention to [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ], [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ].
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk and exchange rate fluctuation risk.
