Liquidity: in February, the BCI SME financing index rebounded for three consecutive months, hitting a new high in one year. (1) According to the historical high of BCI + 44.02 at the end of last month, this is better than the long-term environmental index at the end of February 2022, which is higher than the historical high of BCI + 54.02 at the end of June 2022; (2) There is a strong positive correlation between the growth difference between M1 and M2 and the Shanghai Composite Index: the growth difference between M1 and M2 was – 11.7 percentage points in January 2022 and – 6.20 percentage points month on month.
Infrastructure and real estate chain: the PMI index of new steel orders rebounded to 43.2% in February. (1) Price changes this week: thread + 3.58%, cement price index + 1.24%, rubber – 1.49%, coke + 6.67%, coking coal + 0.00%, iron ore + 13.95%; (2) This week, the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire operating rate were + 3.88pct, + 2.23pct, + 2.80pct and + 4.70pct respectively.
Chain of real estate completion: the price and profit of flat glass decreased month on month. (1) The price ratio of titanium powder and white powder this week was + 0.00% and 16.00% respectively; (2) The profit of titanium dioxide this week was 3278 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 5.52%, and the gross profit of flat glass was 489 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of – 17.40%; (3) The price of PVC was 929100 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 2.61%.
Industrial product chain: in February, PMI new order index rebounded to 50.7% for the first time in half a year. (1) Price performance of major bulk commodities this week: the price of cold rolling, copper and aluminum changed by + 1.98%, + 2.59%, + 2.76% month on month, and the corresponding gross profit changed by – 24.40%, + 4.48%, + 5.26%; (2) In February, the national PMI new order index rebounded to 50.70%.
Breakdown varieties: nickel price has reached a new high since 2012, and the price profit of graphite electrode has rebounded significantly. (1) Graphite electrode: the ultra-high power is 25000 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 4.17%, and the comprehensive gross profit is 4037.5 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 35.18%; (2) Nickel: the price this week is 190700 yuan / ton, up + 6.48% from last week; (3) Stainless steel: the price this week is 20000 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 0.99%; (4) Prebaked anode: the price this week is 5950 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 13.33%, and the profit is – 513 yuan / ton; (5) The price of electrolytic aluminum is 23450 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 2.76%, and the estimated profit is 5448.0 yuan / ton (excluding tax), a month on month increase of + 5.26%; (6) The gross profit of alumina was 712.5 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 13.01%; (7) Thermal coal: the price this week is 940 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 0.00%.
Price comparison relationship: the price difference between hot rolling and thread rebounded to 270 yuan / ton. (1) The price ratio of thread and iron ore was 5.02 this week; (2) The price difference between hot coil and deformed steel bar on Friday is 270 yuan / ton; (3) The price difference between cold rolled steel and deformed steel bars in Shanghai was 750 yuan / ton on Friday, with a month on month comparison of – 60 yuan / ton; (4) The price ratio of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel hot rolling is 0.11; (5) The price difference between spiral nuts (mainly used in real estate) and deformed steel bars (mainly used in infrastructure construction) reached 190 yuan / ton on Friday, down from – 5.00% last week; (6) The price difference of rebar between Xinjiang and Shanghai was 100 yuan / ton on Friday.
Export chain: Global PMI new orders in February were + 1.3 percentage points month on month. (1) The CCFI composite index of China’s export container freight rate index was 338859 points this week, with a month on month ratio of – 1.08%; (2) In February 2022, the value of new orders of global PMI was 53.50%, with a chain comparison of + 1.30 percentage points.
Valuation quantile: this week, the CSI 300 index was – 1.68%, the cyclical sector ranked first in coal mining (+ 11.19%), and the quantile of Pb ratio of steel and industrial metals to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen (since 2013) were 59.18% and 97.48% respectively; The ratio of Pb in steel sector to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is currently 0.71, and the highest value since 2012 is 0.90 (reached in August 2017).
Investment suggestion: according to the report “increased probability of steel output reduction and reappearance of beta opportunities in the industry” issued on March 4, many leaders of the iron and Steel Industry Association have expressed their position successively since mid and late February, and the expectation of industry output reduction has increased. It is suggested to pay attention to Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) ; Recently, the price and profit of electrolytic aluminum are rising, close to the highest level of last year. It is suggested to pay attention to the following subjects: Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
Risk warning: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; The risk of government regulation of commodity prices; Risk of poor management of the company.
