So far, the pricing of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the overseas market has experienced four stages.
Phase I: as an important producer of some commodities, Russia and Ukraine have a wide impact on the supply of commodities. The market expects that the conflict will cause short-term local inflation; In the second stage, the risk aversion caused by the war of market transactions increased rapidly; The third stage is that after Russia has been unable to attack for a long time, the possibility of "larger scale and wider spread conflict" increases, the previous short-term inflation concerns begin to become long-term, and the market trading logic turns to global stagflation; In the fourth stage, with the rising concerns about long-term war and high oil prices, the market is worried about global economic stagnation more than inflation.
Risk tip: the conflict situation between Russia and Ukraine exceeded expectations; NATO and EU sanctions against Russia exceeded expectations; The Fed tightened monetary policy more than expected
